When is UK Jobs and how could affect GBP/USD?

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

UK Jobs report overview

UK labor market report is expected to show that the number of people seeking jobless benefits climbed by 1.0k in the three months to January, compared to a decrease of 10.1k booked in the three months to December.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.8% during the period. Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to Dec are expected to show no growth from the previous 2.8% increase. While ex-bonuses also the wages are expected to stay flat at 2.7%.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 20 and 60 pips in deviations up to 2 to -4, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 85 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

Upbeat clamant count and wage price-growth numbers could rescue the GBP bulls from Yellen-led declines. Hence, the cable could witness a recovery towards 1.25 handle. On the flip side, should the data disappoint, we could see the GBP/USD pair breaching post Yellen lows of 1.2445 and head towards next support at 1.2400 levels.

Key notes

UK jobs preview: Headline wage growth to hold steady at 2.8% - TDS

“We’re in line with consensus for today’s labour market data in looking for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.8% and for headline wage growth to hold steady at 2.8%, both for the month of December.”

About UK jobs

The Claimant Change released by the National Statistics presents the number of unemployment people in the UK. There is a tendency to influence the GBP volatility. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).

Sell 19%

Buy 81%

Avg Sell Price 1.2429

Avg Buy Price 1.2422

Liquidity Distribution

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

EUR/USD looks sidelined around 1.1850

EUR/USD remains on the back foot, extending its bearish tone and sliding towards the 1.1850 area to print fresh daily lows on Monday. The move lower comes as the US Dollar gathers modest traction, with thin liquidity and subdued volatility amplifying price swings amid the US market holiday.

GBP/USD flirts with daily lows near 1.3630

GBP/USD has quickly given back Friday’s solid gains, turning lower at the start of the week and drifting back towards the 1.3630 area. The focus now shifts squarely to Tuesday’s UK labour market report, which is likely to keep the quid firmly in the spotlight and could set the tone for Cable’s next move.

Gold loses momentum, eases below $5,000

Gold is giving back part of Friday’s sharp rebound, deflating below the key $5,000 mark per troy ounce as the new week gets underway. Modest gains in the US Dollar are keeping the metal in check, while thin trading conditions, due to the Presidents Day holiday in the US, are adding to the choppy and hesitant tone across markets.

Bitcoin consolidates as on-chain data show mixed signals

Bitcoin price has consolidated between $65,700 and $72,000 over the past nine days, with no clear directional bias. US-listed spot ETFs recorded a $359.91 million weekly outflow, marking the fourth consecutive week of withdrawals.

The week ahead: Key inflation readings and why the AI trade could be overdone

It is likely to be a quiet start to the week, with US markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day. European markets are higher across the board and gold is clinging to the $5,000 level after the tamer than expected CPI report in the US reduced haven flows to precious metals.

XRP steadies in narrow range as fund inflows, futures interest rise

Ripple is trading in a narrow range between $1.45 (immediate support) and $1.50 (resistance) at the time of writing on Monday. The remittance token extended its recovery last week, peaking at $1.67 on Sunday from the weekly open at $1.43.