Analysts at TDS offer insights on what to expect from the UK labour market report scheduled for release at 09.30GMT later today.
“We’re in line with consensus for today’s labour market data in looking for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.8% and for headline wage growth to hold steady at 2.8%, both for the month of December. While it’s only the 6th line item in Bloomberg, one thing we’ll be keeping a closer eye on than usual is 3m/3m employment growth, which dipped below zero the last two months.”
“We’ve seen short-lived dips into negative territory before over the last few years while all other indications were pointing to a steady or improving labour market (May-June 2015 and Feb-March 2013) so this may be more of a statistical blip than anything particularly nefarious. But it’s certainly worth watching more closely, given that a deterioration in the labour market is one of the biggest risk factors we see as something that could push the BoE toward easing further.”