When is the US UoM sentiment and price expectations data and how could it affect EUR/USD?

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The United States (US) preliminary University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations data for February is scheduled to be published today at 15:00 GMT.

According to flash expectations, the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) dropped to 55.0 from 56.4 in January. Signs of weakening consumer sentiment demonstrate pessimism among individuals towards the economy, which typically leads to lower household spending. Such a scenario prompts traders to raise bets supporting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the near term.

In the North American session, market participants will also focus on UoM one-year forward Consumer Inflation Expectations, which came in at 4% in January.

How could US data affect the EUR/USD?

EUR/USD trades higher at around 1.1789 at the press time. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rises at 1.1792, with spot holding just beneath and capping initial recovery attempts. A decisive close above the 20-day EMA would strengthen the near-term bid.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51 (neutral) nudges higher, confirming steady momentum.

Measured from the 1.1578 low to the 1.2079 high, the 61.8% Fibonacci (Fibo) retracement at 1.1770 offers initial support, and holding this floor would keep the pullback contained within the broader advance.

A clear push back above the 50% retracement at 1.1826 would re-open topside scope and put the recovery back on track. Looking up, the round level of 1.1900 would be an initial hurdle on the way up.

On the downside, failure to hold the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 1.1768 would signal fading momentum and expose a deeper correction towards 78.6% Fibo retracement at 1.1684. Until either trigger gives way, rangebound trade around the mid-1.18s could persist.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, released on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan, is a survey gauging sentiment among consumers in the United States. The questions cover three broad areas: personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions. The data shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money, a key factor as consumer spending is a major driver of the US economy. The University of Michigan survey has proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the US economy. The survey publishes a preliminary, mid-month reading and a final print at the end of the month. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

Consumer exuberance can translate into greater spending and faster economic growth, implying a stronger labor market and a potential pick-up in inflation, helping turn the Fed hawkish. This survey’s popularity among analysts (mentioned more frequently than CB Consumer Confidence) is justified because the data here includes interviews conducted up to a day or two before the official release, making it a timely measure of consumer mood, but foremost because it gauges consumer attitudes on financial and income situations. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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