When is the US monthly jobs report (NFP) and how could it affect EUR/USD?

US monthly jobs report overview

Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of closely watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as NFP. The report is scheduled to be released at 12:30GMT and is expected to show that the US economy added 164K new jobs in July, down from the previous month's stellar reading of 224K

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7% during the reported month and hence, the key focus will be on wage growth figures, which have gained more traction in the recent past. Average hourly earnings are foreseen to post modest growth of 0.2% on a monthly basis, matching the previous reading, while the yearly rate is anticipated to tick higher to 3.2% from 3.1% reported in June. 

AS Joseph Trevisani - Senior Analyst FXStreet explains – “Hiring has retreated from its very strong levels of last year but that is a relative change. With the NFP 12 month average at 191,750 in June the labor market continues to create more jobs than needed to fill workforce expansion and is slowly driving up wages. That excess employment has penetrated sectors of the labor market long-suffering from weak employment. Unemployment rates for Hispanics and African-Americans have fallen to record low levels.”

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction to the headline NFP print, in case of a relative deviation of -0.39 or +0.50 is likely to be in the range of 33-40 pips during the first 15-minutes and could stretch to 80-pips in the subsequent 4-hours.

How could the data affect EUR/USD?

Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair – “Some support awaits at 1.10790 which is the daily low. 1.1027 – the lowest level in two years recorded on Thursday – is critical support. The next lines are 1.0960 and 1.0900, dating back to 2017.”

“Some resistance awaits at 1.1101, the previous 2019 low which now turns into resistance. It is followed by 1.1160 that capped EUR/USD early in the week, and by 1.1190 which was a swing high last week. 1.1240 is next,” he added further.

Key Notes

   •   US Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Look back, no one is gaining

   •   EUR/USD Forecast: Trump's tariffs and the NFP may send it down – risking 1.1000 after a weak recovery

   •   EUR/USD Technical Analysis: A test to 1.1000 and possibly below still persists

About the US monthly jobs report

The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of new jobs created during the previous month, in all non-agricultural business. The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile, due to its high relation with economic policy decisions made by the Central Bank. The number is also subject to strong reviews in the upcoming months, and those reviews also tend to trigger volatility in the forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish), although previous months reviews and the unemployment rate are as relevant as the headline figure, and therefore the reaction depends on how the market asses them all.