US December CPI Overview
Today's US economic docket highlights the release of the latest consumer inflation figures, due for release later during the early North-American session at 13:30GMT. The headline CPI is anticipated to tick higher by 0.1% in January and the yearly rate is seen falling for the fourth consecutive month to 1.5% from 1.9% in December. Meanwhile, Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, is expected to rise 0.2%m/m in January, same as in December, and tick lower to 2.1% y/y rate from 2.2%.
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below and as observed, the reaction in case of a relative deviation of +0.98 to -0.98 in the core CPI print is likely to be in the range of 26-25 pips during the first 15-minutes and could stretch to 55-71 pips in the following 4-hours.
How could it affect EUR/USD?
Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels to watch out for: “Higher above, the pair faces weaker resistance on the way up with 1.1412 where we see the confluence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week, and the Simple Moving Average 200-4h.”
“On the downside, we see the most significant support line at 1.1295: we note last month's low, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day, and the PP one-month Support 1, all substantial lines,” he added further.
Key Notes
• US CPI Preview: Lower will get the Fed's attention
• US CPI Preview: Banks expecting headline inflation to lift by 0.1% in January
• EUR/USD Forecast: 3 reasons to rise, but still a lot of gravity
About the US CPI
The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchasing power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).
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