When is the US August PCE Price Index and how could it affect EUR/USD?


US PCE Price Index Overview

Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for August, scheduled later during the early North American session at 12:30 GMT. The gauge is foreseen to rise by 0.3% during the reported month against the 0.1% fall recorded in July. The yearly rate is anticipated to have accelerated to 6.6% in August from 6.3% previous. Meanwhile, the Core PCE Price Index - the Fed's preferred inflation measure - likely edged up to a 4.7% YoY rate in August from the 4.6% in the previous month.

Analysts at Commerzbank offer a brief preview of the report and explain: “Excluding food and energy, the deflator probably increased by 0.4% MoM. This is a bit less than the recently released core CPI rate. This is because rents have a lower weight in the deflator than in the CPI basket (15% vs. 32.6%); rents rose quite strongly in the CPI in August. In addition, medical services have a much higher weighting in the deflator, and here the government health services included in the deflator, in contrast to the CPI, have a dampening effect on prices.”

How Could it Affect EUR/USD?

The markets started pricing in the possibility of another supersized 75 bps Fed rate hike move in November following the release of hotter-than-expected August US consumer inflation figures. A stronger-than-expected PCE report will reaffirm expectations and boost the US dollar. Conversely, a softer print could force the USD to prolong this week's sharp retracement slide from a two-decade high amid a further descent in the US Treasury bond yields. The immediate market reaction, however, is more likely to be short-lived, warranting some caution before placing aggressive directional bets around the EUR/USD pair.

Eren Sengezer, Editor at FXStreet, offers a brief technical overview and outlines important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart holds above 50 and the pair continues to trade above the 50-period SMA, confirming the bullish bias. On the upside, 0.9850 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest downtrend) aligns as initial resistance. With a four-hour close above that level, the pair could target 0.9900 (psychological level, 100-period SMA) and 0.9950 (200-period SMA).”

“Supports are located at 0.9800 (Fibonacci 50% retracement), 0.9750 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 50-period SMA) and 0.9700 (psychological level, 20-period SMA),” Eren adds further.

Key Notes

  •   US August PCE Inflation Preview: Will it trigger a dollar correction?

  •   Core PCE Preview: Forecasts from six major banks, strong price pressures

  •   EUR/USD Forecast: Quarter-end flows could boost the euro

About the US PCE Price Index

The Personal Spending released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce is an indicator that measures the total expenditure by individuals. The level of spending can be used as an indicator of consumer optimism. It is also considered as a measure of economic growth: While Personal spending stimulates inflationary pressures, it could lead to raise interest rates. A high reading is positive (or Bullish) for the USD.

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.0500 amid light trading

EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.0500 amid light trading

EUR/USD struggles to capitalize on recent upside and oscillates in a narrow range below 1.0500 in European trading on Monday. However, the pair's downside remains cushioned by persistent US Dollar weakness and an upbeat mood. Focus shifts to central bank talks. 

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD ranges near 1.2600 as US Dollar steadies

GBP/USD ranges near 1.2600 as US Dollar steadies

GBP/USD keeps its range near 1.2600 in the early European session on Monday. The pair stays support amid a subdued US Dollar price action following Friday's disappoining US Retail Sales data. Thin trading is likely to extend as US markets are closed in observance of Presidents' Day. 

GBP/USD News
Gold: Bulls have the upper hand near $2,900 amid trade war fears and weaker USD

Gold: Bulls have the upper hand near $2,900 amid trade war fears and weaker USD

Gold regained positive traction on Monday amid sustained USD weakness. Concerns about Trump’s tariffs further benefit the safe-haven XAU/USD pair. The fundamental and technical setup underpin prospects for additional gains. 

Gold News
Cardano set for 20% rally as bullish bets increase

Cardano set for 20% rally as bullish bets increase

Cardano price extends its rally on Monday after gaining more than 13% last week. On-chain metrics suggest a bullish picture as ADA’s long-to-short ratio reached the highest level in over a month. 

Read more
Tariffs likely to impart a modest stagflationary hit to the economy this year

Tariffs likely to impart a modest stagflationary hit to the economy this year

The economic policies of the Trump administration are starting to take shape. President Trump has already announced the imposition of tariffs on some of America's trading partners, and we assume there will be more levies, which will be matched by foreign retaliation, in the coming quarters.

Read more
The Best Brokers of the Year

The Best Brokers of the Year

SPONSORED Explore top-quality choices worldwide and locally. Compare key features like spreads, leverage, and platforms. Find the right broker for your needs, whether trading CFDs, Forex pairs like EUR/USD, or commodities like Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025