Core PCE Preview: Forecasts from six major banks, strong price pressures


The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (Core PCE), will be published on Friday, September 30 at 12:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts of economists and researchers of six major banks.

The market expectation is for the monthly core PCE inflation to rise by 0.5% in August following July’s 0.1% increase. On a yearly basis, the PCE inflation and the core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, are forecast to rise to 6.6% and 4.7%, respectively. 

Commerzbank

“Excluding food and energy, the deflator probably increased by 0.4% MoM. This is a bit less than the recently released core CPI rate. This is because rents have a lower weight in the deflator than in the CPI basket (15% vs. 32.6%); rents rose quite strongly in the CPI in August. In addition, medical services have a much higher weighting in the deflator, and here the government health services included in the deflator, in contrast to the CPI, have a dampening effect on prices.”

TDS

“Core PCE prices likely gained speed again in August following a strong CPI report where core inflation surprised significantly to the upside at 0.6%. The YoY pace likely bounced back to 4.8% (same as in June), suggesting prices remain sticky at an elevated level. Separately, personal spending likely advanced at a modest 0.2% MoM pace following an even weaker 0.1% gain in July.”

NBF

“The annual PCE deflator may have moderated from 6.3% to 6.0%, but core PCE deflator may have increased one tick to 4.7%.”

Deutsche Bank

“We expect core PCE to edge higher by +0.5% MoM (vs +0.1% in July) which won’t allow the Fed to take the foot off the tightening pedal.”

CIBC

“The Fed’s preferred measure of prices, core PCE prices, could have accelerated more modestly than its CPI counterpart, to 4.7% YoY, given the lower weighting of shelter in the index.”

Citibank

“We expect a solid 0.47% MoM increase in core PCE inflation in August. The YoY reading is likely to rise to 4.7%, with further increases likely over the next three months as base effects are likely to push YoY core PCE higher through November.”

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

Gold leaps toward $3,450 as Israel launches attacks on Iran

Gold leaps toward $3,450 as Israel launches attacks on Iran

Gold price rises to over five-month highs, nearing $3,450 in the Asian trading hours on Friday. Israel confirmed strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, fuelling a broad wave of risk aversion while driving the safe-haven Gold price through the roof. Rising Fed rate cut bets also underpin the non-yielding Gold. 

AUD/USD remains heavy below 0.6500 amid intense risk aversion on Israel-Iran confict

AUD/USD remains heavy below 0.6500 amid intense risk aversion on Israel-Iran confict

AUD/USD is off the low but remains heavy below 0.6500 in Friday's risk-off Asian affair. Trump's fresh tariff news and escalating Israel-Iran geopolitical tensions weigh on investors' sentiment and the risk-sensitive Aussie. Broad US Dollar rebound also adds to the pair's downside. 

USD/JPY erases losses to retake 143.50 as USD gains on risk aversion

USD/JPY erases losses to retake 143.50 as USD gains on risk aversion

USD/JPY retakes 143.00 in Asian trading on Friday, reversing an early dip to 142.80. The global risk sentiment takes a hit amid an escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which fuels the haven demand for the US Dollar, offsetting the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status, allowing the pair's swift recovery. 

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple dips as Israel-Iran conflicts escalate

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple dips as Israel-Iran conflicts escalate

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple prices have dipped as escalating geopolitical tension between Israel and Iran has triggered a risk-off sentiment in the cryptocurrency markets. The top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization are extending their losses heading into the weekend, with the price action suggesting further correction.

US tariffs here to stay, trade deals ‘largely symbolic’

US tariffs here to stay, trade deals ‘largely symbolic’

Despite legal challenges to IEEPA tariffs, US trade policy remains firm. Tariffs on steel and aluminium have doubled, and new sectoral tariffs are expected. Trade deals may emerge, but most will be symbolic. Effective tariff rates will stay high throughout 2025.

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025