German IFO Survey Business Climate Index remains steady at 87.6 in January

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

The German IFO Institute's Business Climate Index remains steady at 87.6 in January, below estimates of 88.1.

IFO Current Assessment Index ticks up to near 85.7 from 85.6 in December.

Expectations Index fell to 89.5 from the prior release of 89.7.

Market reaction

EUR/USD remains steady near 1.1850 after the German IFO data release.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.27%	-0.22%	-1.11%	-0.12%	-0.45%	-0.44%	-0.63%
EUR	0.27%		0.04%	-0.89%	0.15%	-0.18%	-0.17%	-0.36%
GBP	0.22%	-0.04%		-0.93%	0.11%	-0.23%	-0.21%	-0.41%
JPY	1.11%	0.89%	0.93%		1.08%	0.73%	0.76%	0.56%
CAD	0.12%	-0.15%	-0.11%	-1.08%		-0.34%	-0.31%	-0.51%
AUD	0.45%	0.18%	0.23%	-0.73%	0.34%		0.01%	-0.22%
NZD	0.44%	0.17%	0.21%	-0.76%	0.31%	-0.01%		-0.20%
CHF	0.63%	0.36%	0.41%	-0.56%	0.51%	0.22%	0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

(This section below was published at 06:30 GMT as a preview of the German IFO Survey data for January)

The German IFO Survey Overview

Germany’s IFO institute will publish its business survey for January on Monday at 09:00 GMT.

The headline IFO Business Climate Index is expected to tick higher to 88.1 this month, from a 87.6 reading in December.

The Current Assessment Index was at 85.6, while the Expectations Index was at 89.7 in December.

How could the German IFO Survey affect EUR/USD?

EUR/USD may remain subdued if the IFO Business Survey data comes out as expected amid increased safe-haven demand, still trading at a gap up. However, the Euro (EUR) may maintain its position as the Eurozone's PMI data pointed to a soft services sector in January, maintaining the outlook of unchanged rates by the European Central Bank (ECB). Earlier releases from Germany were more encouraging, as the Services PMI beat forecasts and remained in expansionary territory, while the Manufacturing PMI improved but stayed below the expansion–contraction threshold.

The EUR/USD pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) recovers its daily losses, supported by the increased risk aversion, which could be attributed to trade and geopolitical tensions. US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if Ottawa were to strike a trade deal with China. Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Sunday that Ottawa has no plans to seek a free trade agreement with China. Trump also cautioned that a US aircraft carrier strike group is heading toward the Middle East as tensions with Iran intensify.

Technically, the EUR/USD depreciates after opening at four-month highs, trading around 1.1860 at the time of writing. However, the bullish bias prevails as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 69.00, suggesting stretched momentum. The pair may rebound toward a fresh four-month high of 1.1897, aligned with the psychological level of 1.1900. On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.1739.

Economic Indicator

IFO – Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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