NZD/USD Price Forecast: Climbs further beyond mid-0.5900s, highest since September 2025
- NZD/USD scales higher for the seventh consecutive day amid a broadly weaker USD.
- Last week’s breakout through key hurdles backs the case for further near-term gains.
- Any corrective pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain cushioned.
The NZD/USD pair prolongs its uptrend for the seventh consecutive day and advances to a fresh high since September 2025 on Monday amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD). Spot prices stick to bullish bias through the first half of the European session, around the 0.5965-0.5970 region, and seem poised to appreciate further.
From a technical perspective, last week's breakout through the 0.5750-0.5860 confluence hurdle – comprising the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-November 2025 downfall and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) – favors bullish traders. A subsequent strength beyond the 0.5900 mark, or the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level, validates the positive outlook and suggests that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair is to the upside.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line extends above the Signal line and stands in positive territory, suggesting strengthening bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 75.8, overbought. A pause or shallow pullback could precede any further extension. The 200-day SMA flattens at 0.5868, with the NZD/USD pair holding above it and improving the medium-term bias. Remaining north of this long-term average supports the advance.
Meanwhile, the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at 0.6003 could act as immediate resistance. Clearing the 61.8% retracement at 0.5913 hints the prior bearish leg is fading. The descending trend line from 0.6111 was broken near 0.5805, turning that area into initial support and reinforcing the topside bias. A daily close above resistance would open the path for further gains, while setbacks would be seen as a buying opportunity and cushioned by the breached trend line.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
NZD/USD daily chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
