When is China Trade Balance and how could it affect AUD/USD?

China's Trade Balance overview

Early Thursday sees China's January month Trade Balance figures, expected sometime around 03:00 GMT. The release will be closely watched, especially by the Antipodean traders, as the potential for further directives after the US-China trade spat seems to ease. The forecasts suggest a decline to $33.50 billion in headline trade balance number compared to $57.06 billion registered during December last year. The imports may drop to -10% from the previous -7.6% whereas exports could register a lesser decline of -3.2% compared to -4.4% earlier reading. The Aussie speculators will be looking for fresh signs of further economic slowdown in their largest trading partner's reported figures in order to stretch the recent downturn. TD Securities’ analysts say:

Our model points to an outsized decline in Chinese imports (-23.0% y/y ) in January, largely due to base effects but also much weaker exports data from South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore and Taiwan. Adding in the impact of the seasonal impact of Chinese New Year, with weaker activity towards the end of January, it points to a very soft imports print. Exports are likely to look slightly better (+2.4% y/y), albeit still remaining weak. Such a weak outcome will likely provoke further speculation of an easier Chinese policy stance and put pressure on China to agree on a trade deal at the meeting between President’s Xi and Trump at the end of February.

How could it affect the AUD/USD?

While mixed plays between the recent optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal and stronger USD has been disturbing the AUD/USD traders, any deterioration in headline economics from its largest consumer can add weakness into the Aussie.

On a brighter note, an upbeat trade balance number can propel the AUD/USD pair to surpass 0.7135-40 immediate upside barrier and aim for 0.7185 whereas 0.7225 could restrict the pair’s rally thereafter.

In case of disappointment, as it has been off late with Chinese statistics, the quote may slide back towards 0.7050 with 0.7015 and 0.6980 likely being follow-on rests to watch.

Key Notes

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Failure to cross 0.7135-40 seems to recall the weekly low around 0.7050

AUD/USD holds above 0.71 despite USD strength

About China's Trade Balance

The Trade Balance released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows a trade surplus, while a negative value shows a trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the CNY. As the Chinese economy has an influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market. In general, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CNY.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD extends slide, nears the 1.1200 figure

The shared currency is suffering from speculation the ECB will steepen easing and German Business Sentiment falling by more-than-anticipated. Upbeat US Retail Sales sent the pair further down toward the 1.1200 figure.



GBP/USD collapsed to fresh 2019 lows

Robust employment data fell short of supporting the Pound, badly hurt from mounting fears about a hard-Brexit, after PM’s candidates, Johnson and Hunt said that the Irish backstop is “dead” and would seek for a new daily, something the EU is not willing to do.


USD/JPY: risk sentiment skews the pair to the downside

Political and economic turmoil in Europe weighed on the market’s sentiment. US Retail Sales seen posting a modest advance in June. USD/JPY to resume its decline if the 107.70 support gives up.


Gold keeps the red near $1410 level ahead of Powell’s speech

Gold finally broke down of its consolidative trading range and tumbled to fresh session lows, below $1410 level during the early North-American session.

Gold News

Gold in search of a firm direction, stuck in a range ahead of US data/Powell

Gold lacked any firm directional bias and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the mid-European session on Tuesday.

Read more