Australian GDP overview
Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) dovish halt and expectations of softer economic growth highlight Australia’s second-quarter (Q2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, up for publishing at 01:30 GMT on Wednesday, for the AUD/USD pair traders.
The recent data from Australia portray a mixed picture as higher wages contrast with a reduction in company profits and softer productivity measures. With these statistics in mind, the Aussie Q2 GDP is likely to print mixed figures and could prod the AUD/USD bears.
That said, forecasts suggest the annualized pace of economic growth to come in at 1.7%, softer than the previous period's 2.3%, while the quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) numbers could improve with 0.3% growth figures versus 0.2% prior.
Ahead of the outcome, Analysts at ANZ said,
The GDP data due to be released today for Q2 is forecast to show Australia’s economy expanded by 0.4% q/q or 1.9% y/y. Net exports are one of the drivers of growth at present. Higher wages are expected to offset a reduction in company profits. Productivity measures are expected to remain weak with GDP per hour worked expected to fall by 2.5% q/q.
How could it affect the AUD/USD?
AUD/USD stays on the front foot at the lowest level in 2023 after falling the most in five weeks the previous day. In doing so, the Aussie pair bears the burden of the previous day’s Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) dovish halt and fears emanating from China amid the US soft landing concerns.
Given the early downbeat signals, and the RBA’s lack of hawkish bias, as well as looming fears about the economic growth in the biggest customer China, the Aussie Q2 GDP is likely to keep the Aussie bears on the table unless flashing too strong numbers.
Hence, AUD/USD is likely to remain pressured at the yearly low despite the anticipated mixed Aussie growth figures. Even if the figures mark an extremely positive surprise, the upside might turn out as ephemeral amid the dovish RBA concerns and also due to the China concerns.
Technically, the clear downside break of the three-week-old rising support line, now resistance around 0.6410, directs the AUD/USD pair sellers towards a descending support line from early March surrounding 0.6340.
Key notes
Australian Treasurer Chalmers: China slowdown, higher rates will put significant pressure economy
AUD/USD stays depressed YTD low below 0.6400 ahead of Australia GDP, US ISM Services PMI
About the Aussie GDP release
The Gross Domestic Product released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Australia. The GDP is considered a broad measure of economic activity and health. A rising trend has a positive effect on the AUD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the AUD.
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