UK retail sales Overview
The UK retail sales data is expected to ease to 0.2% m/m in August, while on annualized basis, retail sales are also seen ticking lower to 1.1%. In July, retail sales were seen at 0.3% over the month and 1.3% annually. Meanwhile, core retail sales data, excluding fuel, are expected to come in at 0.2% m/m and 1.4% y/y. The report will be published later this session at 0830 GMT.
Deviation impact on GBP/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of upto 100 pips.
How could affect GBP/USD?
A positive surprise in the retail sales report could offer fresh impetus to the GBP bulls, taking the rate back above 1.3550 levels. While a bigger-than expected drop in the retail volumes would knock-off the pair back to 1.3470/65 – key support area.
In terms of technicals, “On a sustained move beyond the 1.36 handle, the pair is likely to accelerate the up-move towards 1.3660 level before eventually darting towards the 1.3700 round figure mark. The near-term strong bullish trajectory could further get extended even beyond the 1.3800 handle towards testing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level hurdle near mid-1.3800s. On the flip side, any weakness below the 1.3500 handle might continue to find some support near 1.3470-65 zone, which is closely followed by the ascending trend-channel resistance break-point, now turned support, near the 1.3440-30 region, “Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet explained.
Key notes
FOMC and UK retail sales amongst market movers today – Danske Bank
UK: Mild downside risks to the August retail sales report - TDS
About UK retail sales
The retail Sales released by the National Statistics measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
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