|

When are UK retail sales and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK retail sales Overview

The UK retail sales data is expected to ease to 0.2% m/m in August, while on annualized basis, retail sales are also seen ticking lower to 1.1%. In July, retail sales were seen at 0.3% over the month and 1.3% annually. Meanwhile, core retail sales data, excluding fuel, are expected to come in at 0.2% m/m and 1.4% y/y. The report will be published later this session at 0830 GMT.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of upto 100 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

A positive surprise in the retail sales report could offer fresh impetus to the GBP bulls, taking the rate back above 1.3550 levels. While a bigger-than expected drop in the retail volumes would knock-off the pair back to 1.3470/65 – key support area.

In terms of technicals, “On a sustained move beyond the 1.36 handle, the pair is likely to accelerate the up-move towards 1.3660 level before eventually darting towards the 1.3700 round figure mark. The near-term strong bullish trajectory could further get extended even beyond the 1.3800 handle towards testing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level hurdle near mid-1.3800s. On the flip side, any weakness below the 1.3500 handle might continue to find some support near 1.3470-65 zone, which is closely followed by the ascending trend-channel resistance break-point, now turned support, near the 1.3440-30 region, “Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet explained.

Key notes

FOMC and UK retail sales amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

UK: Mild downside risks to the August retail sales report - TDS

About UK retail sales

The retail Sales released by the National Statistics measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

More from Dhwani Mehta
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD stays depressed near 1.1850 ahead of German ZEW

EUR/USD remains in the red near 1.1850 in the European session on Tuesday. A broad US Dollar bullish consolidation combined with a softer risk tone keep the pair undermined ahead of the German ZEW sentiment survey. 

GBP/USD drops below 1.3600 after weak UK jobs report

GBP/USD is seeing a fresh selling wave, giving up the 1.3600 level in Tuesday's European trading. The United Kingdom employment data showed worsening labor market conditions, bolstering bets for a BoE interest rate cut next month. This narrative is weighing heavily on the Pound Sterling. 

Gold pares intraday losses; keeps the red above $4,900 amid receding safe-haven demand

Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some follow-through selling for the second straight day and dives to over a one-week low, around the $4,858 area, heading into the European session on Tuesday. 

Pi Network rallies ahead of its first anniversary

Pi Network trades above $0.1800 at the time of writing on Tuesday, recording nearly 5% gains so far. On-chain data indicate that large wallet investors, commonly known as whales, have accumulated approximately 4 million PI tokens over the last 24 hours.

The week ahead: Key inflation readings and why the AI trade could be overdone

It is likely to be a quiet start to the week, with US markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day. European markets are higher across the board and gold is clinging to the $5,000 level after the tamer than expected CPI report in the US reduced haven flows to precious metals.

Stellar mixed sentiment caps recovery

Stellar price remains under pressure, trading at $0.170 on Tuesday after failing to close above the key resistance on Sunday. The derivatives metric supports the bearish sentiment, with XLM’s short bets rising among traders and funding rates turning negative.