When are the US monthly retail sales figures and how could they affect EUR/USD?


US monthly retail sales overview

Thursday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures for the month of March, scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Following the previous month's 0.2% decline, consensus estimates point to a solid rebound in March. The headline sales are predicted to rise by 0.9% and sales excluding automobiles are seen climbing 0.7% during the reported month. Adding to this, the growth for the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group is also expected to climb 0.4% m/m as compared to a decrease of 0.2% recorded in the previous month.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction in case of a relative deviation of -0.64 or less, the pair may go up reaching a range of 19-pips in the first 15-minutes and 43-pips in the following 4-hours.

Alternatively, the reaction to a higher than expected reading, with a relative deviation of 0.54 or higher could be in the range of 23-pips in the first 15-minutes and 79-pips in the following 4-hours. In the last five releases, the pair moved, on an average, 30-pips in the 15-minutes after the data release and 35-pips in the following 4-hours.

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels for trading the major: “Support awaits at 1.1230, the swing low that was seen last week. 1.1210 was a stubborn support line in early April and 1.1176 is the trough this year. 1.1115 follows and dates back to 2017.”

“1.1280 was the bottom of the range before the drop. 1.1330 was a double top this week and the top of the range. 1.1360 and 1.1390 are next,” he added further.

Key Notes

   •  US Retail Sales Preview: Let the spending begin

   •  EUR/USD Forecast: Not looking good ahead of Good Friday

   •  EUR/USD consolidates the slide near 1.1250, US retail sales eyed

About US retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
 

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