US durable goods orders overview
Thursday's US economic docket highlights the release of durable goods orders data for the month of March. The US Census Bureau is scheduled to release the monthly report at 12:30 GMT and consensus estimates point to a goodish bounce during the reported month and show a 0.8% m/m rise following a steep decline o 1.6% recorded in the previous month. Excluding transportation items - core durable goods orders, which tend to have a broader impact than the volatile headline figures are anticipated to rise 0.2% in March as against a downwardly revised reading of -0.1% previous.
As Joseph Trevisani, FXStreet's own Senior Analyst explains: “Several factors point to a better than expected durable goods result in March. The economy has performed well in the first quarter. Despite low initial estimates for GDP, beginning in early March at less than 0.5% annualized, the most recent forecast from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is 2.8%. Equities have soared to record or near record highs this month based largely on excellent corporate earnings reports. Retail sales in March were much stronger than predicted, 1.6% vs 0.9% in the overall number and 1.0% s 0.4% in the control group.”
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction is likely to be in the range of 20-25 pips during the first 15-minutes in case of a deviation from +0.36 to -0.51 and could extend up to 51-55 pips in the following 4-hours.
EUR/USD important levels to watch
Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers some important technical levels ahead of the important release: “The fresh 2019 and a 22-month low of 1.1140 is the first line of support. 1.1115, 1.1025, and 1.0900 all date back to 2017. Resistance awaits at the previous yearly trough of 1.1176, followed by 1.1205 that was a swing low in early April, 1.1230 that was a separator of ranges before the recent downfall, and 1.1285 that capped EUR/USD recently.”
Key Notes
• US Durable Goods Preview: Where the consumer leads
• EUR/USD Forecast: Down but not out, oversold conditions can trigger a recovery
• EUR/USD continues losing ground, falls to fresh multi-month lows ahead of US durable goods
About US durable goods orders
The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.
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