Overview of Australian jobs report (Feb)
Australia's monthly jobs report is back on the cards for Asian markets today and employment is expected to rise for a 19th consecutive month, extending the record. The report will be released at 01:30 GMT, (11:30am Syd/9: 30am Sing/HK. ), and markets are looking for 18k vs 22.6k prior; (The median forecast on Bloomberg is for a similar report to April, with jobs up 19k (vs +23k) and the unemployment rate edging down from 5.6% to 5.5%.).
Banks:
Westpac’s forecasts 17k on total employment, 5.5% unemployment rate, assuming the participation rate is steady at 65.6%:
This would see annual jobs growth ease from 2.7% to 2.6%, as the pace of job creation normalizes following the 2017 burst.
Analysts at TD Securities are bullish on employment:
Employment is expected to lift by +25k in May, buoyed by upbeat leading indicators, as well as favourable seasonals. If the participation rate remains at 65.6% (after last month’s uptick) then the unemployment rate eases a pip back to 5.5%, where the RBA expects it to be. The volatile nature of this monthly series hints at a boost to part-time jobs at the expense of full-time.
How could the data affect AUD/USD?
Overnight, AUD/USD was whipsawed around the Fed where an upbeat assessment of the economy accompanied by a rate hike of 25bps along with a hawkish addition to the dot plots was sending the AUD/USD back onto the defensive, capping the bull's corrective attempts to the 0.76 handle. The price was clearing the 21-D SMA/ daily cloud base and traded at a low of 0.7529. However, a switch up in the dollar on the back of trade war angst sent the pair higher to a close of 0.7577 in NY. AUD/USD is now consolidated around the 21-D SMA at 0.7569 and trapped between the rising channel's support at the low 0.7529 and where resistance meets the 100-D SMA at 0.7714, (regard them as potential break out points).
Key notes:
- Some background fundamental inputs for the Aussie ahead of today's jobs data - ANZ
- Forex today: bid-up dollar on hawkish FOMC rolls over on trade war angst
About Aussie jobs data:
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD turns south toward 0.6400 after mixed Australian jobs data
AUD/USD has come under renewed selling pressure and turned south toward 0.6400 after Australian employment data pointed to loosening labor market conditions, fanning RBA rate cut expectations and weighing on the Aussie Dollar.
USD/JPY remains below 154.50 amid weaker US Dollar
USD/JPY keeps losses for the second successive session, trading below 154.50 in Asian trading on Thursday. The pair is undermined by the latest US Dollar pullback, Japan's FX intervention risks and a softer risk tone.
Gold retreats as lower US yields offset the impact of hawkish Powell speech
Gold prices retreated from close to weekly highs during the North American session on Wednesday amid an improvement in risk appetite. The bullish impulse arrived despite hawkish commentary by US Federal Reserve officials.
OMNI post nearly 50% loss after airdrop and exchange listing
Omni network lost nearly 50% of its value on Wednesday after investors dumped the token following its listing on top crypto exchanges. A potential reason for the crash may be due to the wider crypto market slump.
US stock continue to stumble as traders rethink rates
US stocks grappled with uncertainty on Wednesday in the wake of a cautious string of commentary from the US Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 is currently experiencing its longest non-bullish streak in months.