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Emini S&P December futures still just drifting aimlessly after the long holiday weekend. We are still holding just above minor support at 4542/38 to keep bulls in control & perhaps on the next leg higher we can reach my next target of 4591/94, perhaps as far as 4615/19 eventually.

Strong support again at 4542/38. Longs need stops below 4533.

A break lower risks a slide to 4505/00 & even 4480/75 is possible.

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Nasdaq December futures edged higher to 16173 last week as we look for 16300 next target. Further gains can target 16390/410.

We have held a very tight range from around 15940/920 up to 16090/16120 for a week.

The best buying opportunity should be at 15850/830 & longs need stops below 15770. We should also have strong support at 15700/660.

Chart

Emini Dow Jones December continues higher through 35080/35100 to my next targets of 35170/190 & 35230 & now we are edging above 35400/450, so we look for 35570/590. Further gains this week can target 35650/670.

Support again at 35390/360. Longs need stops below 35250.

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Global stock index and Dollar movement

  • Global stock indexes advanced on Tuesday.

  • The U.S. dollar fell to a 3-1/2 month low, marking its biggest monthly drop in a year.

  • Federal Reserve official signals that the central bank may consider rate cuts if inflation continues to ease.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller's comments

  • Waller suggested the possibility of lowering the Fed policy rate in the coming months if inflation continues to decrease.

  • He expressed increasing confidence that the current interest rate setting would be sufficient to lower inflation to the Fed's 2% target.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman's remarks

  • Bowman mentioned that the central bank might need to raise borrowing costs further to bring inflation back down to its target.

Market Response and Rate Cut Expectations

  • Traders increased bets for the first rate cut, with March being a possibility.

  • Probability for a 25 basis-point cut rose to nearly 33% from 21.5% on Monday, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool.

  • Majority expected a cut, at least one notch, in May.

Wall Street indexes performance

  • Wall Street indexes closed higher.

  • Dow Jones rose 0.24%, S&P 500 gained 0.10%, and Nasdaq Composite added 0.29%.

US consumer confidence survey

  • A survey showed U.S. consumer confidence rose in November after three months of declines.

  • However, households still anticipated a recession over the next year.

Upcoming economic data

  • The spotlight will be on the U.S. October personal consumption expenditures report (PCE), including core PCE (Fed's preferred inflation measure).

  • Euro zone consumer inflation figures are expected to provide clarity on price and monetary policy directions.

US treasury yields and Dollar Index

  • After the Fed commentary, U.S. Treasury yields dipped, with benchmark 10-year notes down 6 basis points.

  • Dollar index fell 0.368%, with the euro up 0.32% to $1.0988.

Currency movements

  • Japanese yen strengthened 0.82% against the greenback.

  • Sterling was last trading at $1.2694, up 0.55% on the day.

Gold prices

  • Spot gold prices were up 1.4% at $2,040.79 an ounce, hitting their highest level since May.

Oil prices

  • Oil prices settled higher on the possibility of OPEC+ extending or deepening supply cuts, a storm-related drop in Kazakh oil output, and the weaker U.S. dollar.

  • U.S. crude settled up 2.07% at $76.41 per barrel, and Brent settled at $81.68, up 2.13% on the day.

Australian and New Zealand Dollars

  • Australian dollar held near a four-month peak.

  • New Zealand dollar scaled a roughly four-month top of $0.61495.

  • Australian inflation data and a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are awaited.

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