USD/ZAR: Room for the South African Rand to play catch up with ongoing rally in EM FX – MUFG


Share:

Analysts at MUFG Bank see the USD/ZAR moving to the downside over the next days. They point out the South African Rand has failed to strengthen alongside other Emerging Market currencies on the back of building optimism over a dovish Federal Reserve policy pivot and China’s economy reopening more fully this year.

Key quotes:

“The ZAR has underperformed recently after USD/ZAR failed to break below support from the 200-day moving average in the middle of this month. It leaves the ZAR as one of the worst performing (-1.0% vs. USD) EM currencies so far this year.”

“Investor sentiment towards the ZAR has been hit recently by heightened concerns over the negative impact on growth in South Africa from worsening energy supply restrictions, and speculation that an amendment to the central bank’s mandate is imminent. While we acknowledge these domestic risks, we believe that the ZAR’s valuation now appears more attractive and offers room for catch up strength alongside the ongoing rebound in emerging market currencies.”

“The main downside risks in the week ahead would be if the Fed and other major central banks provide a hawkish policy shock that disrupts financial markets and lifts US yields and the USD.”

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended content


Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD rebounds from multi-week lows, trades above 1.0750

EUR/USD rebounds from multi-week lows, trades above 1.0750

EUR/USD came under heavy bearish pressure and declined to its weakest level in three weeks below 1.0750 on Friday after the stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls data. Week-end flows, however, helped the pair erase its daily losses.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD remains on track to snap three-week winning streak

GBP/USD remains on track to snap three-week winning streak

GBP/USD recovered toward 1.2550 after coming in within a touching distance of 1.2500 in the second half of the day after Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 199,000 for November. Despite the recent rebound, the pair remains on track to snap a three-week winning streak.

GBP/USD News

Gold retreats below $2,020 as US yields push higher

Gold retreats below $2,020 as US yields push higher

Gold broke below its daily range and declined toward $2,010 with the immediate reaction to the upbeat US November jobs report. Although XAU/USD managed to recover toward $2,020, rising US Treasury bond yields triggered another leg lower.

Gold News

Bitcoin price could retrace to $42,000 if US Nonfarm Payroll comes in at 180,000

Bitcoin price could retrace to $42,000 if US Nonfarm Payroll comes in at 180,000

Bitcoin price just like other assets, is highly impacted by the macro-financial developments. This includes the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released by the BLS of the United States. 

Read more

The week ahead – Fed, ECB and Bank of England rate decisions

The week ahead – Fed, ECB and Bank of England rate decisions

When the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged back in November for the second meeting in a row there was still the distinct possibility that the final meeting of 2023 would provide the possibility of one more rate rise to round off the year in line with Fed policymakers dot plot forecasts of 5.6%.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures