USD/TRY: Difficult for Turkey to avoid another currency crisis – Societe Generale

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Societe Generale’s strategist Phoenix Kalen predicts deeper losses for the Turkish lira after President Tayyip Erdogan abruptly fired the central bank Governor Naci Agbal on Saturday.

Key quotes

The move by Erdogan leaves the country "beyond the point of no return" and that may lead to a fresh record low in the lira.

"Without much remaining reserves to defend the currency, and considering an expected exodus in foreign and local investor capital, it may be difficult for Turkey to avoid another currency crisis in the coming months."

Forecast USD/TRY at 9.70 in Q2, 9.0 by Q3 and the pair will be at 9.30 in Q4.

USD/TRY: Turkish Pres. Erdogan propels biggest rally in 31 months

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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