USD/TRY: Difficult for Turkey to avoid another currency crisis – Societe Generale


Societe Generale’s strategist Phoenix Kalen predicts deeper losses for the Turkish lira after President Tayyip Erdogan abruptly fired the central bank Governor Naci Agbal on Saturday.

Key quotes

The move by Erdogan leaves the country "beyond the point of no return" and that may lead to a fresh record low in the lira.

"Without much remaining reserves to defend the currency, and considering an expected exodus in foreign and local investor capital, it may be difficult for Turkey to avoid another currency crisis in the coming months."

Forecast USD/TRY at 9.70 in Q2, 9.0 by Q3 and the pair will be at 9.30 in Q4.

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