USD/TRY: Ceasefire may provide only a short-term relief - Rabobank

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

According to Piotr Matys, Emerging Markets FX Strategist at Rabobank, the Turkish lira might not be completely out of the woods just yet despite the recent recovery.

Key Quotes:

The Turkish lira is in a recovery mode after Turkey and the US agreed to a temporary ceasefire to allow Kurdish fighters – who until recently were US allies in the region – to retreat from the area which Turkey intends to use as a safe zone to relocate a few millions Syrian refugees.

While the agreement negotiated by Vice President Pence is a step in the right direction, the respite for the lira could be short-lived if the 5-days ceasefire does not lead to a permanent truce. There seems to be – based on comments from various lawmakers – a relatively strong incentive on Capitol Hill to penalise Turkey for its military offensive in northern Syria, even if it is rational and justified from the Turkish perspective due to the overwhelming number of Syrian refugees and Kurdish fighters being a threat to Turkey’s security. The risk of tough economic sanctions hasn’t vanished.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs on US CPI

EUR/USD now accelerates it rebound and flirts with the 1.1880 zone on Friday, or daily highs, all in response to renewed selling pressure on the US Dollar. In the meantime, US inflation figures showed the headline CPI rose less than expected in January, removing some tailwinds from the Greenback’s momentum.

GBP/USD clings to gains above 1.3600

GBP/USD reverses three consecutive daily pullbacks on Friday, hovering around the low-1.3600s on the back of the vacillating performance of the Greenback in the wake of the release of US CPI prints in January. Earlier in the day, the BoE’s Pill suggested that UK inflation could settle around 2.5%, above the bank’s goal.

Gold: Upside remains capped by $5,000

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked retracement, as bargain-hunters seem to have stepped in. The precious metal’s upside, however, appears limited amid the slightly better tone in the US Dollar after US inflation data saw the CPI rise less than estimated at the beginning of the year.