The Turkish lira staged the biggest rally in the FX market on Monday as it strengthened by over 5% against the US dollar. It was the biggest daily gain for the lira since 2018. However, the optimism over conventional policy shift is yet to be tested after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan fired the governor of the central bank, Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG Bank, briefs.
Key quotes
“The sharp turnaround for the lira has been driven by investor optimism that monetary policy could soon shift in a more orthodox direction. It follows the decision from President Erdogan to fire CBoT governor Murat Uysal. He has been replaced by former Finance Minister Naci Agbal who is seen as one of the few remaining names in government that still subscribes to mainstream economic thinking, and is well regarded among international investors. Finance Minister Berat Albayrak has also resigned following the decision to install Agbal as the new Governor. President Erdogan has now accepted his resignation and appointed former deputy prime minister and development minister Lutfi Elvan as his replacement.”
“The appointment of new Governor Agbal has encouraged speculation that the CBoT will start to tighten policy significantly by raising their key policy rate to provide more support for the lira. The first true test of policymaking under new Governor Agbal is expected to be posed by the next scheduled CBoT meeting on 19 November although there is some risk that the CBoT could hold an emergency policy meeting in the interim.”
“If the CBoT decisively raises its key policy rate, it could prove to be an important turning point for the lira. It would increase our confidence that the worst point for the lira is over. Turkey’s current account deficit has actually widened following the COVID-19 shock. Over the last six months to the end of August, it has totalled around $23 billion. It leaves the lira vulnerable to renewed weakness if the CBoT disappoints.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays near 1.0800 after upbeat US data
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades near 1.0800 in the American session on Thursday. The data from the US showed that the real GDP growth for the fourth quarter got revised higher to 3.4% from 3.2%, supporting the USD and weighing on the pair.
GBP/USD stays in daily range above 1.2600
GBP/USD fluctuates in a narrow channel above 1.2600 on Thursday. The better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims data from the US and the upward revision to the Q4 GDP growth helps the USD stay resilient against its rivals and limits the pair's upside.
Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays above 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to preserve its bullish momentum.
XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC
XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Torres was completely rejected by another US Court that ruled in favor of the SEC in a lawsuit against Coinbase.
Portfolio rebalancing and reflation trades emerge into Q2
Yesterday’s price action pointed at a possible end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing as the session saw the laggards of the quarter like Apple and Tesla gain, and the stars like Microsoft and Nvidia retreat.