USD/RUB Price Analysis: Volatility across the Russia/Ukraine crisis timeline picks up

USD/RUB holds in the bullish territory as the Russian/Ukraine crisis unfolds.
Volatility picks up in historical events for Russia and Ukraine.

Ross J Burland FXStreet

The Russian ruble is volatile on Monday as the headlines roll in thick and fast regarding the developments at the Kremlin. Russia's President Vladimir Putin has announced his intention to sign a separatist recognition decree over eastern Ukraine regions.

The following illustrates the market volatility on the 1-hour chart and a timeline of how the price has reacted to various stages of the crisis unfolding on a daily basis since November 2021. This was when Satellite imagery showed a new build-up of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine.

USD/RUB H1 chart

USD/RUB daily chart

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

AUD/USD: Recovery appears capped by 0.7000

AUD/USD has reversed a multi-day positive streak, briefly revisiting the 0.6940 region before trimming part of those gains to end the day modestly on the back foot. The better tone in the Greenback has kept the pair under pressure, which has so far met decent contention in the vicinity of the 0.6900 zone. Moving forward, the Melbourne Institute’s Consumer Inflation Expectations is next on tap in Oz.

USD/JPY holds firm near 158.50 ahead of Fed Minutes

USD/JPY hangs close to a one-and-a-half-week high near 158.50 in the Asian session on Wednesday, with bulls now awaiting a move beyond the 200-day SMA hurdle before positioning for further gains ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Meanwhile, a fresh leg up in US bond yields revives US Dollar demand amid geopolitical uncertainties, boosting the pair amid dovish BoJ commentary.

Gold trims losses, back above $4,100

Gold now manages to regain some balance, returning to the area above the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce following the closing bell in Europe on Wednesday. The yellow metal’s sharp pullback comes in tandem with marked gains in the US Dollar and a marked bounce in US Treasury yields across the curve.

Bitcoin vs Gold: BTC and XAU fall amid macro headwinds, but Ray Dalio still prefers Gold

Bitcoin (BTC) edges lower on Wednesday, trading near $83,000. The broader correction in the cryptocurrency market can be attributed to heavily leveraged long liquidations, macro and geopolitical pressure reducing risk appetite. Gold (XAU/USD), similarly, remains in bearish hands as it tests short-term support at $4,100.

Fed Minutes: Officials saw inflation risks worsening before September hike

All participants at the Federal Reserve's (Fed) September 15–16 meeting supported the 25-basis-point rate increase, while most judged that another hike would probably be appropriate by the end of the year. The Minutes show policymakers increasingly focused on upside inflation risks, a resilient economy and the possibility that strong AI investment could add to demand pressures.

The UK 30-year gilt just hit a 1998 high. Is that good or bad for the British Pound?

The yield on the UK's 30-year government bond, or gilt, went through 6% on October 1 for the first time since early 1998, and on Monday the Pound was at its strongest against the Euro since June 2025. The gilt market's 28-year high is mostly someone else's. Since early May, the 30-year gilt yield has risen about 0.15 of a percentage point and the US 30-year about 0.7.