WTI Price Forecast: Retreats from seven-month top, still well bid near $71.00 mark
- WTI shot to a seven-month peak on Monday amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- The recent rebound from the 100-period SMA on H4 and a break above $69.00 favor bullish traders.
- A slightly overbought RSI warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciation.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices trim a part of strong intraday gains to levels beyond the $73.00 mark, or the highest since June 2025, touched this Monday in reaction to a dramatic escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The black liquid currently trades around the $71.00 mark, still up over 5.50% for the day.
The near-term bias turns bullish following the recent rebound from the rising 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and a breakout above the $69.00 mark. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above its signal and above the zero line, with a widening positive histogram, which reinforces the strengthening bullish tone.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 70.94 approaches overbought territory, showing strong upside momentum after breaking above the 60 area. Immediate resistance emerges at the recent spike high around $71.80, where the latest rally stalled, and intraday overbought readings intensified. A clear break above this level would open the door to further gains toward the mid-$70s, while failure here would encourage a corrective phase.
On the flip side, initial support now stands at $70.50, followed by the psychological $70.00 handle acting as an intermediate floor on pullbacks. Below that, stronger support aligns toward $67.00, where the prior consolidation area sits well above the 100-period SMA, preserving the broader upward bias as long as it holds.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI 4-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
