|

USD recovery remains fragile as tariffs and economic risks mount – BBH

US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields are steady just above Friday’s lows while US equity futures point to a modest rebound. Any USD recovery looks fragile in our view, and the broader downtrend should reassert itself, BBH FX analysts report.

USD recovery fragile amid policy credibility and tariff concerns

"First, US policymaking credibility is increasingly under threat. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s departure on August 8, gives President Donald Trump an opportunity to appoint a replacement aligned with his monetary policy agenda. Meanwhile, the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) head by President Trump immediately after the poor July jobs data risks damaging perception of US economic data integrity."

"Second, the US economy is showing cracks while the full hit from tariffs has yet to come. The average effective US tariff rate is estimated at 18.3% as of August 1, the highest since 1934. That’s up from 2.4% in January, 7% in May and roughly 16% in June and July. The higher tariffs are projected to lower real GDP growth by -0.5 percentage points in both 2025 and 2026 and increase consumer prices by 1.8% in the short-run."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD softens below 1.1750 amid ECB rate hold expectations

The EUR/USD pair declines to around 1.1730 during the early European session on Wednesday, pressured by renewed US Dollar demand. Nonetheless, the potential downside for the major pair might be limited amid the growing acceptance that the European Central Bank is done cutting interest rates. 

GBP/USD gains ground above 1.3400 on UK PMI optimism

The GBP/USD pair gains momentum to around 1.3425 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling edges higher against the Greenback on the upbeat UK preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index data. Traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak later on Wednesday. 

Gold advances to near seven-week highs amid US labor market cooling

Gold price extends its upside to near seven-week highs above $4,300 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The precious metal gains momentum as the US labor market remains relatively resilient but shows signs of slowing. The mixed US employment report for November reinforces bets of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and weighs on the US Dollar.

Top Crypto Gainers: SPX6900, Pi Network, Filecoin – Sudden rebound lifts bullish spirit

SPX6900, Pi Network, and Filecoin emerge as top gainers in the last 24 hours as the broader cryptocurrency market remains under bearish pressure. The sudden rebound in SPX, PI, and FIL suggests a possible rally, as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator on the 4-hour chart flashes a buy signal. 

Ukraine-Russia in the spotlight once again

Since the start of the week, gold’s price has moved lower, but has yet to erase the gains made last week. In today’s report we intend to focus on the newest round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, whilst noting the release of the US Employment data later on day and end our report with an update in regards to the tensions brewing in Venezuela.

BNB Price Forecast: BNB slips below $855 as bearish on-chain signals and momentum indicators turn negative

BNB, formerly known as Binance Coin, continues to trade down around $855 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after a slight decline the previous day. Bearish sentiment further strengthens as BNB’s on-chain and derivatives data show rising retail activity.