USD/MXN Price Analysis: Manages to hold above 100-day SMA, bias seems tilted in favour of bulls


  • USD/MXN struggles to gain any meaningful traction and oscillates in a range on Monday.
  • The technical setup supports prospects for some meaningful upside amid a bullish USD.
  • A break below last week's swing low will shift the bias back in favour of bearish traders.

The USD/MXN pair manages to defend the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support through the Asian session on Monday, albeit struggles to gain any meaningful traction. Spot prices remain below the 17.2500 area, or last week's swing high, which should now act as a pivotal point for short-term traders.

With technical indicators on the daily chart holding in the positive territory, a sustained strength beyond should pave the way for some meaningful upside and lift the USD/MXN pair to the 17.3810 area (September 12 peak). Some follow-through buying has the potential to lift spot prices further towards the next relevant hurdle near the 17.5910-17.5960 horizontal zone en route to the monthly top, around the 17.7090-17.7095 region.

The US Dollar (USD) holds steady just below its highest level in more than six months and remains well supported by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook, signalling the need to keep rates higher for longer to push inflation to the 2% target. This, along with the reduction in the expected number of rate cuts in 2024, continues to push the US bond yields higher and continues to underpin the USD, favouring the USD/MXN bulls.

Hence, any meaningful slide below the 100-day SMA might continue to attract fresh buyers near the 17.1010-17.0650 horizontal support. This, in turn, should help limit the downside for the USD/MXN pair near last week's swing low, around the 16.9980 area. which if broken decisively might shift the bias in favour of bearish traders. Spot prices might then turn vulnerable to retesting the 16.6945 area, or a multi-year low touched in August.

USD/MXN daily chart

fxsoriginal

Technical levels to watch

USD/MXN

Overview
Today last price 17.2097
Today Daily Change -0.0013
Today Daily Change % -0.01
Today daily open 17.211
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 17.171
Daily SMA50 17.0383
Daily SMA100 17.1956
Daily SMA200 17.892
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 17.2374
Previous Daily Low 17.1012
Previous Weekly High 17.2506
Previous Weekly Low 16.9982
Previous Monthly High 17.4274
Previous Monthly Low 16.6945
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 17.1532
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 17.1854
Daily Pivot Point S1 17.129
Daily Pivot Point S2 17.047
Daily Pivot Point S3 16.9927
Daily Pivot Point R1 17.2652
Daily Pivot Point R2 17.3194
Daily Pivot Point R3 17.4014

 

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD bounces off lows, approaches 1.1550

EUR/USD bounces off lows, approaches 1.1550

EUR/USD continues to recover ground lost and now extends the rebound to the 1.1550 zone on Friday. Meanwhile, the US Dollar maintain its bullish bias intact in response to a significant flight to safety amid increasing geopolitical concerns, while positive consumer sentiment data also contribute to the daily uptick.

Gold keeps the trade above $3,400 on safe-haven demand

Gold keeps the trade above $3,400 on safe-haven demand

Gold prices maintain its upward trajectory on Friday, reaching its peak level since late April above the $3,400 mark per troy ounce. Furthermore, the precious metal draws increased safe-haven interest amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, triggered by Israel's military action against Iran.

GBP/USD trims losses, retargets 1.3600

GBP/USD trims losses, retargets 1.3600

After an earlier dip toward the 1.3520 area, GBP/USD has regained some composure, trading within sight of the key 1.3600 barrier as the week draws to a close. The pair remains under pressure on Friday, weighed down by renewed US Dollar strength amid rising risk aversion and a stronger-than-expected consumer confidence report.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP clamber for support amid escalating volatility on Israel-Iran tensions

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP clamber for support amid escalating volatility on Israel-Iran tensions

The cryptocurrency market has been hit by a sudden wave of extreme volatility, triggering widespread declines as global markets react to tensions between Israel and Iran. Bitcoin is hovering at around $104,668 at the time of writing on Friday, following a reflex recovery from support tested at $102,513.

Week ahead – Markets brace for central bank barrage amid heightened uncertainty

Week ahead – Markets brace for central bank barrage amid heightened uncertainty

Fed officials to stand pat as they await further clarity. A dovish BoJ could push rate hike expectations into 2026. Deflation fuels speculation about negative SNB rates. BoE may sound more dovish after disappointing UK data.

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025