|

USD/JPY very quiet before Fed's storm

  • Fed rate decision is coming very soon at 18.00 GMT. Get ready. 
  • USD/JPY technical compression seems unsustainable as one side will have to give in. 

The USD/JPY is trading at around 106.30 down 0.20% so far as the FOMC rate decision is quickly approaching. The key question will revolve around how many times the Fed will hike; three or four times in 2018? Another equally important issue will be the impact of tax cuts on the economy. 

After the Fed's rate decision, the FOMC will release its monetary policy’s statement which may provide additional volatility to the USD pairs. 

USD/JPY daily chart

The USD/JPY is trading in yesterday's range ahead of the rate decision. The USD/JPY is in the middle of the 105.50-107.00 range. Both the RSI and MACD are showing a positive divergence, although the RSI is still below the 50 mark. A bullish breakout will see the bulls initially targetting the 107.00 psychological level, followed by the 107.60-108.00 area which was a previous supply zone, later followed by 109.00 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the November 2017-March 2018 downtrend. On the flip side, if bears win, support is seen at the 104.00, 102.00 and 100.00 figures.

Author

Flavio Tosti

Flavio Tosti

Independent Analyst

 

More from Flavio Tosti
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds above 1.1750 due to cautious trade before FOMC Minutes

EUR/USD holds ground after four days of little losses, trading around 1.1770 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair remains steady as US Dollar moves little amid market caution ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee December Meeting Minutes due later in the day, which could offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s 2026 outlook.

GBP/USD finds key support near 1.35 despite year-end grind

GBP/USD remains bolstered on the high end as markets grind through the last trading week of the year. Cable caught a bullish tilt to keep price action on the high side of the 1.3500 handle, though year-end holiday volumes are unlikely to see significant progress in either direction as 2025 draws to a close.

Gold rises on Fed rate cut bets, safe-haven flows

Gold price edges higher above $4,350 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal recovers some lost ground after falling 4.5% in the previous session, which was gold's largest single-day loss since October.  Increased margin requirements on gold and silver futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, one of the world’s largest trading floors for commodities, prompted widespread profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.

Solana risks correction within descending wedge as bearish bets rise

Solana hovers above $120 at press time on Tuesday after a nearly 2% decline on Monday. The SOL-focused Exchange Traded Funds see renewed interest after recording their lowest weekly inflow last week.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).