|

USD/JPY to trade down to the YTD lows between 127-128 relatively quickly – MUFG

Economists at MUFG continue to see a lower USD/JPY as the most likely scenario.

JPY strength will be more than just about the Fed

“The scale of easing now priced for this year (Dec ’23 fed funds future at 4.10%) leaves the US dollar vulnerable and we are likely to see USD/JPY trading down to the YTD lows between 127-128 relatively quickly.”

“The monthly trade data in Japan for the month of February indicated the reversal of that negative terms of trade shock is well under way in Japan. The February import bill for fuel and minerals totalled JPY 2,577bn. The peak total for imports was back in August when natural gas prices peaked with the total import bill at JPY 3,423bn.” 

“Understandably, the Fed and the drop in yields in the US is getting the attention as a key factor in pushing USD/JPY lower but the energy story will certainly add to positive JPY momentum this year.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD ticks lower following the release of FOMC Minutes

The US Dollar found some near-term demand following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, with the EUR/USD pair currently piercing the 1.1750 threshold. The document showed officials are still willing to trim interest rates. Meanwhile, thinned holiday trading keeps major pairs confined to familiar levels.

GBP/USD remains sub- 1.3500, remains in the red

The GBP/USD lost traction early in the American session, maintaining the sour tone and trading around 1.3460 following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Trading conditions remain thin ahead of the New Year holiday, limiting the pair's volatility.

Gold stable above $4,350 as the year comes to an end

Gold price got to recover some modest ground on Tuesday, holding on to intraday gains and changing hands at $4,360 a troy ounce in the American afternoon. The bright metal showed no reaction to the release of the FOMC December meeting minutes.

Ethereum: ETH holds above $2,900 despite rising selling activity

Ethereum (ETH) held the $2,900 level despite seeing increased selling pressure over the past week. The Exchange Netflow metric showed deposits outweighed withdrawals by about 400K ETH. The high value suggests rising selling activity amid the holiday season.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).