|

USD/JPY spikes and retreats on mixed US NFP report, up a little above 139.00 mark

  • USD/JPY struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday gains and hands near a one-week low.
  • The mixed NFP report reaffirms an imminent Fed rate hike pause and continues to cap the USD.
  • The risk-on impulse undermines the safe-haven JPY and is seen lending some support to the pair.

The USD/JPY pair jumps to a fresh daily high, around the 139.45 region, during the early North American session, albeit meets with a fresh supply at higher levels. Spot prices quickly retreat to the lower end of the daily range and currently trade just above the 139.00 mark following the release of the mixed US monthly jobs data.

The US Dollar (USD) did get a minor boost in reaction to the upbeat headline NFP print, showing that the US economy added 339K new jobs in May. The reading consensus estimates pointing to an addition of 190K jobs and well above the previous month’s upwardly 294K, which, in turn, benefits the Greenback and provides a modest lift to the USD/JPY pair.

Further details of the report, however, revealed that the Unemployment Rate shot to 3.7%, missing expectations for a modest uptick to 3.5% from 3.4%. Moreover, Average Hourly Earnings also fall short of estimates, reaffirming market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely skip an interest rate hike in June. This, in turn, caps the buck and the USD/JPY pair.

The downside, meanwhile, remains cushioned, at least for the time being, amid a more dovish stance adopted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This, along with the risk-on impulse, as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets, undermines the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair, warranting some caution for bearish traders.

Nevertheless, spot prices, for now, seem to have stalled this week's retracement slide from the 141.00 neighbourhood, or the YTD low, though remain on track to register losses for the first time in the previous four weeks.

Technical levels to watch

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price138.93
Today Daily Change0.14
Today Daily Change %0.10
Today daily open138.79
 
Trends
Daily SMA20137.61
Daily SMA50135.13
Daily SMA100133.84
Daily SMA200137.28
 
Levels
Previous Daily High139.95
Previous Daily Low138.43
Previous Weekly High140.72
Previous Weekly Low137.49
Previous Monthly High140.93
Previous Monthly Low133.5
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%139.01
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%139.37
Daily Pivot Point S1138.16
Daily Pivot Point S2137.54
Daily Pivot Point S3136.64
Daily Pivot Point R1139.69
Daily Pivot Point R2140.58
Daily Pivot Point R3141.21

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD edges above 1.1750 due to ECB-Fed policy divergence

EUR/USD has recovered its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 1.1760 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders will likely observe Germany’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index data later in the day.

GBP/USD gathers strength above 1.3450 on Fed rate cut bets, BoE's gradual policy path

The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3480 during the early Asian session on Friday. Expectations of the US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year weigh on the US Dollar against the Pound Sterling. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson is set to speak later on the weekend. 

Gold climbs to near $4,350 on Fed rate cut bets, geopolitical risks

Gold price rises to near $4,345 during the early Asian session on Friday. Gold finished 2025 with a significant rally, achieving an annual gain of around 65%, its biggest annual gain since 1979. The rally of the precious metal is bolstered by the prospect of further US interest rate cuts in 2026 and safe-haven flows.

Bitcoin trades in compression as 2026 begins with structure still unresolved

BTC/USD remains locked in a two-way structure, with micro supply-and-demand levels guiding early-year price behaviour.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).