USD/JPY sees volatility as markets asses US Core PCE and BOJ's Decision

At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading near the 150.00 area, 1% above its opening price, after reaching a daily low of 138.05. The U.S. dollar, measured by the DXY index, trades relatively flat at the end of the week following pressured down by soft Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures from June.

In that sense, US Treasury yields are decreasing to Core PCE, retreating to 4.1% below the expectations as Fed Chair Jerome Powell clearly stated that ongoing decisions will depend on incoming data. However, the Federal Reserve (Fed), until the next September meeting, will get two additional sets of inflation and job report figures which will be the ones which model the tightening expectations.

However, the pair’s upwards trajectory is explained by markets considering dovish the Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy decision. No hikes were announced or hinted but concluded with an unexpected Yield Curve Control (YCC) adjustment. Regarding Governor Ueda's comments, he stated that the decision was not a step toward normalisation as the bank is still far from where it can raise short-term rates, and its dovish tone seems to be weakening the Yen.

USD/JPY Levels to watch

The technical outlook for the USD/JPY is neutral to bullish for the short term. Indicators have gained some strength but remain in negative territory while the pair is capped by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 140.93.

Resistance Levels: 140.93 (20-day SMA), 141.50, 142.00.

Support levels: 138.70, 138.00, 137.40 (100-day SMA).

USD/JPY Daily chart