USD/JPY Price Forecast: Refreshes almost three-week high near 145.00

USD/JPY posts a fresh almost three-week high around 145.00 as the Japanese Yen underperforms.
The BoJ left interest rates steady at 0.5% and indicated a delay in plans of hiking interest rates further.
The US Dollar surrenders some of its initial gains ahead of US Manufacturing PMI data.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The USD/JPY pair surges almost 0.8% to near 144.80 during European trading hours on Thursday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) indicating delay in plans of more interest rate hikes.

Japanese Yen PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.07%	-0.11%	0.82%	0.09%	0.06%	0.02%	0.01%
EUR	0.07%		-0.04%	0.92%	0.13%	0.13%	0.09%	0.07%
GBP	0.11%	0.04%		0.90%	0.20%	0.17%	0.12%	0.10%
JPY	-0.82%	-0.92%	-0.90%		-0.75%	-0.76%	-0.85%	-0.89%
CAD	-0.09%	-0.13%	-0.20%	0.75%		-0.03%	-0.07%	-0.10%
AUD	-0.06%	-0.13%	-0.17%	0.76%	0.03%		-0.04%	-0.05%
NZD	-0.02%	-0.09%	-0.12%	0.85%	0.07%	0.04%		-0.02%
CHF	-0.01%	-0.07%	-0.10%	0.89%	0.10%	0.05%	0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Earlier in the day, the BoJ kept interest rates steady at 0.5%, as expected, but expressed that additional tariffs imposed by United States (US) President Donald Trump on April 2 could hit the domestic economy and inflation.

We will enter a period in which both inflation and wage growth will likely slow somewhat. But we expect a positive cycle of rising wages and inflation to continue due to a severe labour shortage," BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in the press conference, Reuters reported.

Additionally, the BoJ has cut Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast for fiscal year ending March 2026 significantly to 0.5% from prior estimates of 1.1%.

Meanwhile, US Dollar (USD) gives up some of its intraday gains ahead of the US final S&P Global and Manufacturing PMI data for April, which will be published in the North American session.

USD/JPY extends its recovery to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 144.00. The pair started recovering after attracting bids near the 21-month low around 140.00.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises into the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting that the bearish momentum is over. However, the downside bias is intact.

The odds of the pair extending its recovery towards the March 11 low of 146.54 and the April 9 high of 148.28 would increase if it will break above the key resistance of 145.00.

The asset would face downside move towards the 28 July 2023 low of 138.00 and the 14 July 2023 of 137.25 after sliding below the September 16 low of 139.58.

USD/JPY daily chart

Economic Indicator

BoJ Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY.

GBP/USD extends the drop to 1.3360

GBP/USD builds on Monday’s decline and briefly clinches five-day lows near 1.3360 on Tuesday. Cable’s extra pullback follows the better tone in the Greenback as uncertainty in the Middle East prompts investors to adopt a cautious stance. Meanwhile, an apathetic UK labour market report also collaborates with the selling pressure on the British Pound.

EUR/USD stays offered just above 1.1400

EUR/USD keeps the downtrend well in place for yet another day, challenging the 1.1400 contention zone on Tuesday. The continuation of the selling impulse in spot comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar, which continues to find support in the persistent effervescence surrounding the US-Iran crisis.

Middle East crisis intensifies, Gold up

Gold now seems to have embarked on a consolidative phase below the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce in the latter part of Tuesday’s session. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and rising expectations for a hawkish Fed policy outlook are expected to limit the precious metal’s bullish momentum in the near term.

XRP extends recovery as on-chain activity grows

Ripple (XRP) ticks up and trades around $1.13 at the time of writing on Tuesday. This rebound aligns with a broader recovery in the cryptocurrency market, attributed to reports that mediators between the United States (US) and Iran are seeking a 10-day cessation of strikes to find a way back to the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

The Iranian war has again risen

The Iranian war has again risen to the top of the economics factor list. There is no end in sight. Intelligence experts say the current level of offense/retaliation will not change minds in Tehran, while in Washington, Trump fears all-out war, which would mean boots on the ground.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.