USD/JPY Price Forecast: Price above 20-day EMA backs near-term bullish bias

USD/JPY corrects further to near 155.80 as the Japanese Yen recovers on fears of Japan’s intervention.
Tokyo’s CPI ex. Fresh Food for February arrives lower at 1.8% YoY from the previous release of 2%.
Investors await the US PPI data for fresh cues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The USD/JPY pair is down 0.2% to near 155.80 during the European trading session on Friday. The pair retraces as the Japanese Yen (JPY) extends recovery on hopes of Japan’s intervention.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.06%	0.08%	-0.17%	-0.11%	-0.18%	-0.03%	-0.15%
EUR	0.06%		0.14%	-0.13%	-0.05%	-0.11%	0.03%	-0.09%
GBP	-0.08%	-0.14%		-0.27%	-0.18%	-0.26%	-0.11%	-0.23%
JPY	0.17%	0.13%	0.27%		0.09%	0.01%	0.15%	0.04%
CAD	0.11%	0.05%	0.18%	-0.09%		-0.08%	0.06%	-0.05%
AUD	0.18%	0.11%	0.26%	-0.01%	0.08%		0.15%	0.02%
NZD	0.03%	-0.03%	0.11%	-0.15%	-0.06%	-0.15%		-0.12%
CHF	0.15%	0.09%	0.23%	-0.04%	0.05%	-0.02%	0.12%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Earlier in the day, Japanese Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama stated that the government remains vigilant to JPY’s weakness, with a strong sense of urgency. Katayama also said that the administration is “maintaining extremely close communication with the United States (US), and will continue engaging in dialogue to ensure that the concerns you raise do not materialise”.

Meanwhile, Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth moderating below 2% has raised concerns over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate hike plans. The data showed earlier in the day that Tokyo CPI ex. Fresh Food growth cooled down to 1.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 2% in January, but remained higher than estimates of 1.7%.

On the US Dollar (USD) front, investors await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for January, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. The producer inflation data is expected to influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook, as several officials have expressed concerns over inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% target in their latest commentaries.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY trades lower to near 155.80 during the press time. Price has slipped back toward the rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average, which now tracks just above 155.20 and acts as dynamic support. The recent rebound off the 152.00s has stalled, but the pair still holds a pattern of higher lows.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI)wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.

Initial resistance emerges at the February 9 high of 157.66, ahead of the 159.20-159.45 zone that capped the last upswing. On the downside, immediate support stands near 155.20 at the 20-day EMA, followed by the February 23 low around 154.00 and then the recent swing low around 152.27, where a break would undermine the current bullish structure and open a deeper retracement.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)

The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The index is widely considered as a leading indicator of Japan’s overall CPI as it is published weeks before the nationwide reading. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

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