USD/JPY Price Analysis: Struggles near weekly lows, just above mid-105.00s post-ADP report

  • USD/JPY stages a modest intraday bounce of around 25 pips from 200-hour SMA.
  • The uptick runs out of the steam near a three-day-old descending trend-line.
  • Disappointing ADP report failed to impress bulls and capped any further gains.

The USD/JPY pair found some support near 200-hour SMA and staged a modest intraday bounce of around 25 pips from mid-105.00s, or weekly lows set earlier this Wednesday.

The uptick lacked any strong follow-through and quickly ran out of steam just ahead of a three-day-old descending trend-line resistance amid sustained USD selling. The USD remained depressed following the release of the disappointing ADP report, which showed private-sector employment in the US increased by only 167K as against consensus estimates pointing to a reading of 1500K.

The pair has now retreated back closer to the lower end of its daily trading range. Some follow-through weakness below mid-105.00s will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for further intraday slide. The pair might then accelerate the fall back towards challenging the key 105.00 psychological mark with some intermediate support near the 105.30-25 region.

Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart maintained their bearish bias and have again started drifting into the bearish territory on hourly charts. The set-up remains firmly in favour of bearish trades and supports prospects for an eventual breakthrough the mentioned support.

On the flip side, bulls are likely to wait for a sustained strength beyond the trend-line resistance, currently near the 105.90 region, before positioning for any further appreciating move. The pair might then witness a fresh bout of the short-covering move and accelerate the momentum back towards weekly tops, just ahead of mid-106.00s.

USD/JPY 1-hourly chart


Technical levels to watch


Today last price 105.76
Today Daily Change 0.04
Today Daily Change % 0.04
Today daily open 105.72
Daily SMA20 106.45
Daily SMA50 107.14
Daily SMA100 107.53
Daily SMA200 108.23
Previous Daily High 106.2
Previous Daily Low 105.64
Previous Weekly High 106.13
Previous Weekly Low 104.19
Previous Monthly High 108.16
Previous Monthly Low 104.19
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 105.85
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 105.98
Daily Pivot Point S1 105.51
Daily Pivot Point S2 105.3
Daily Pivot Point S3 104.95
Daily Pivot Point R1 106.06
Daily Pivot Point R2 106.41
Daily Pivot Point R3 106.62



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