USD/JPY Price Analysis: Steady around 122.60s on high US T-bond yields

The USD/JPY recovers after dipping 350-pips in the week, rallying above the 122.00 mark on a buoyant market mood and a strong US dollar, lifted by solid US macroeconomic data and prospects of the Federal Reserve hiking rates by 50-bps in the May meeting. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading 122.58.

Investors’ mood turned sour post the US macroeconomic data amid the extension of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe. The Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Ukraine had understood the situation in Crimea and Donbas. Lavrov added that Russia was preparing a response to Ukraine’s proposals and said there is progress.

The US Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s value vs. a basket of its peers, surges 0.29%, sits at  98.59, while the 10-year US Treasury yield advances five basis points, sits at 2.375%, underpins the USD/JPY.

It is worth noting that the yield curve in 2s-10s and 5s-30s has inverted at press time and is a signal that market players are expecting a slowing economy or even a risk of recession.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Friday’s price action witnessed a jump of the USD/JPY, from weekly lows, towards the mid-area of the trading range in the week. Furthermore, a “gravestone-doji” in a downtrend gave traders an early signal that the pair would either consolidate or resume upwards. So once confirmed that the USD/JPY recorded a bottom around 121.27, the uptrend is intact.

Therefore, the USD/JPY first supply zone to challenge would be 123.00. Breach of the latter would expose March 30, daily high at 123.20, once cleared, could pave the way towards 124.30, but first USD/JPY traders would need to reclaim 124.00.