• The USD/JPY ended the week on the right foot, gaining 1.42%.
  • High US Treasury yields underpinned the USD/JPY pair.
  • USD/JPY Price Forecast: The pair is upward biased, but it might correct courtesy of RSI showing overbought conditions.

The USD/JPY is set to finish the week above the 124.00 mark for the first time in the year, though short of the YTD high at 125.10, amid a mixed market mood and upward pressured US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 124.27

US equities closed mixed, portraying the market sentiment. US Treasury yields rose, led by the 10-year benchmark note rate up to four and a half basis points, sat at 2.706%, a tailwind for the USD/JPY due to its positive correlation. If yields rise, the USD/JPY pair does it too.

On Friday, the USD/JPY opened around 123.90 but then fell towards the mid-pòint between the S1-Daily pivot point at 123.67, a price level where bulls took charge and lifted the pair towards fresh weekly highs at 124.67.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY remains upward biased. The daily moving averages (DMAs) reside well below the spot price, confirming the uptrend. However, the Relative Strenght Index (RSI) at 76.15 is aiming higher and at overbought levels, which means that the pair might be headed towards a correction before resuming up.

If the scenario of a lower correction plays out, the USD/JPY’s first support would be 124.00. A decisive break would expose 123.67. Once cleared, the next support would be March 244 daily high at 122.41.

Upwards, the USD/JPY’s first resistance will be 125.00, which once breached would send the pair towards the YTD high at 125.10, followed by June 2015 cycle highs near 125.85, and then the April 2001 swing high around 126.85.


Today last price 124.27
Today Daily Change 0.42
Today Daily Change % 0.34
Today daily open 123.94
Daily SMA20 121.15
Daily SMA50 117.62
Daily SMA100 115.98
Daily SMA200 113.61
Previous Daily High 124
Previous Daily Low 123.47
Previous Weekly High 125.1
Previous Weekly Low 121.28
Previous Monthly High 125.1
Previous Monthly Low 114.65
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 123.8
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 123.67
Daily Pivot Point S1 123.61
Daily Pivot Point S2 123.27
Daily Pivot Point S3 123.07
Daily Pivot Point R1 124.14
Daily Pivot Point R2 124.34
Daily Pivot Point R3 124.68



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