USD/JPY: Political risks are still present – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

USD/JPY was a touch softer amid pullback in UST yields while Japan wages continue to rise (4.1% y/y vs. 3% expected). The rise in wages remain consistent with Governor Ueda’s comments and this keeps hopes for policy normalisation alive. Pair was last at 148.18 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

US data risk to watch tonight

"Daily momentum and RSI indicators are not showing a clear bias for now. 2-way risks likely, with US data risk to watch tonight. Bias to lean against strength. Resistance at 148.80 (200 DMA), 149.20 levels. Support at 147.20 (50 DMA), 146.70 (38.2% fibo retracement of April low to August high)."

"Moving on, focus is on 8 September as LDP members submit responses to decide if the party presidential election should be brought forward. Earlier this week, 4 LDP members including Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama indicated their intention to step down after the review report on the upper house election in July was presented. Report had indicated nine factors on why voters are not supporting the LDP."

"This included the loss of trust brought on by money scandals, measures to deal with higher CPI, etc. It remains unclear if PM Ishiba will resign and if any new leadership will bring about any positive change. The risk of an earlier LDP election may temporarily undermine the JPY but politically-driven JPY depreciation is likely to reverse when the domestic house is in order."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD loses momentum, flirts with 1.3200

GBP/USD is struggling to maintain its positive bias on Thursday, retreating toward the 1.3200 region in response to the pick in the buying interest around the Greenback. That said, Cable remains under scrutiny as cautious market sentiment keeps investors focused on the US-Iran conflict and political effervescence in the UK.

EUR/USD trims gains, challenges 1.1400

EUR/USD now gives away part of its earlier advance, receding toward the 1.1400 contention zone on Thursday. Meanwhile, the pair’s recovery comes amid extra losses in the US Dollar, at the time when while investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East and sentiment surrounding global technology stocks.

Gold remains bid and close to $4,100

Gold accelerates its recovery and approaches the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, adding to Thursday’s advance. However, expectations for a hawkish Fed remain steady and keep the yellow metal’s potential upside contained.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin at $60,000, Ethereum at $1,500, and XRP at $1 face a make-or-break test

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) are trading in the red on Friday after three consecutive days of losses, testing their respective make-or-break support levels.

Week ahead – NFP report to challenge Dollar strength and the hawkish Fed

Dollar strength dominates markets, as the hawkish Fed overshadows geopolitics and lower oil prices. NFP week could drive September Fed hike expectations and boost market volatility. The euro lacks fresh bullish catalysts, all eyes on the preliminary inflation report and the ECB Forum.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.