USD/JPY: More downside – OCBC

USD/JPY fell in response to Powell’s dovish remarks last Fri and extended its decline this morning following the escalation in geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hezbollah over the weekend, OCBC FX strategist Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Remain bias for downside play in USD/JPY

“Bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside. Support at 142, 140.40 (61.8% fibo). Resistance at 144.50 (50% fibo retracement of 2023 low to 2024 high), 147.20 levels (21 DMA). We remain bias for downside play in USD/JPY.”

“Governor Ueda’s comments in parliament last Fri reinforced the view that BoJ rate hikes remain on the table while Powell’s ‘time has come’ speech at Jackson Hole reinforced the view that Fed’s next move is a cut.”

“Broader direction of travel for USD/JPY has changed as Fed-BoJ policies shifted from divergence to convergence and this should continue to underpin the downside for USD/JPY. In addition, geopolitical concerns is another factor that could add to support for safe-haven JPY.”