USD/JPY edges lower near 146.00 on the weaker US Dollar, hawkish BoJ
- USD/JPY extends downside around 146.05 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Rising bets on Fed rate cuts in September exert some selling pressure on the USD and drag the pair lower.
- The hawkish BoJ remains supported by the JPY against the USD.
The USD/JPY pair trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day near 146.05 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The downtick of the pair is backed by a weaker US Dollar (USD) broadly. Traders will keep an eye on Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday.
Meanwhile, the USD Index (DXY), a measure of the value of the Greenback relative to a basket of foreign currencies, drops to a multi-day low around 101.85, which creates a headwind for USD/JPY. Investors see the US Fed to start easing the policy in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the markets are now pricing in a nearly 77% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in September and expect a 200 basis points (bps) reduction in the next 12 months, though that will depend on incoming data.
On the JPY’s front, upbeat Japan’s second-quarter GDP and the potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the near term underpin the Japanese Yen (JPY). Kazutaka Maeda, an economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute, said that the reports are simply positive overall and “it supports the BoJ’s view and bodes well for further rate hikes, although the central bank would remain cautious as the last rate increase had caused a sharp spike in the Yen.”
Last week, Japanese Economy Minister Yoshitaka Shindo noted that the Japanese economy is forecasted to recover gradually as wages and income improve. Shindo further stated that the government will collaborate closely with the BoJ to implement flexible monetary policy in the future.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.
The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
