Improving growth prospects in Japan do not necessarily correspond to improving Japanese currency prospects, argue analysts at Wells Fargo. They point out that with inflation still absent, the Bank of Japan is set to maintain an accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future. They forecast a USD/JPY exchange rate of 120.00 by early 2023.
Key Quotes:
“For the time being, a brief period of yen stability is possible, given some recent declines in global bond yields and existing FX positions. IMM currency futures, for example, show speculative yen short positions near their largest levels since 2019, potentially limiting yen softness for now. However, we do expect global bond yields to show a renewed rise in the months and quarters ahead as inflation pressures persist.”
“U.S. price pressures in particular remain quite robust, with the U.S. October CPI rising 6.2% year-over-year. As U.S. inflation remains quite elevated by historical standards and the Federal Reserve winds down its quantitative easing program by mid-2022 and starts its rate hike cycle before then end of next year, we see U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rising to 2.20% by early 2023.”
“With Japanese yields unlikely to follow U.S. yields perceptibly higher, we expect that will translate into a weaker yen versus the U.S. dollar, and target and USD/JPY exchange rate of JPY120.00 by early 2023.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD: Bullish outlook above 0.6460
AUD/USD made a sharp U-turn on Tuesday, rapidly leaving behind the previous day’s deep pullback and surpassing its critical 200-day SMA in the 0.6460 zone. The surpass of this key region should in turn shift the pair’s outlook to a bullish one, opening the door to the continuation of the recovery in the near term.
EUR/USD shifts its focus to 1.1200
EUR/USD quickly set aside the negative start to the week and rose markedly on Tuesday, coming in at shouting distance from the key barrier at 1.1200 the figure. The pronounced bounce came on the back of the strong resurgence of the selling pressure around the US Dollar amid trade uncertainty and lower-than-expected US CPI prints.
Gold sticks to daily gains around $3,250
Gold prices pared some of their early-week losses and hovered near $3,250 on Tuesday afternoon, supported by a cautious market tone and softer-than-expected US April CPI data, which helped XAU/USD stabilise.
CryptoPunks moves to new ownership as Node Foundation acquires IP from Yuga Labs
The Infinite Node Foundation disclosed on Tuesday that it has acquired intellectual property (IP) rights for the non-fungible token (NFT) CryptoPunks collection from Yuga Labs. Through the deal, NODE seeks to provide long-term stewardship of the CryptoPunks collection and give it mainstream recognition.
US-China trade truce only emphasizes timeless investing truths
Markets roared back to life as the US and China hit pause on their escalating trade war, with both sides emphasizing mutual respect and dignity. But it wasn’t the fine print that moved markets—it was the mood shift. Investors rushed back into risk assets, betting that the worst might be behind us.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.