USD/JPY closed above 145.00 ahead of Japanese GDP data

USD/JPY finally broke with the 145.00 resistance and rose near 145.55, tallying a six-day winning streak.
A cautious market mood supported the USD—eyes on Retail Sales from July and FOMC minutes.
Eyes on preliminary Q2 GDP figures from Japan to be released on Tuesday.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

At the start of the week, the USD/JPY rose to its highest level since November 10, 2022, mainly driven by a cautious market mood and a stronger USD. In addition, after jumping above the key resistance of 145.00, there are no signs of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) of a stealth intervention which leaves the JPY vulnerable.

On the Japanese side, Tuesday will witness the release of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) preliminary report, with projections anticipating a rise at a yearly rate of 3.1%. Nonetheless, it's worth noting that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has yet to show any indications of pivoting away from its accommodative monetary approach or engaging in market interference to manage the depreciation of the JPY. This lack of action could fuel an avenue for additional negative movement for the pair. However, if the Japanese economy shows signs of recovery, the BoJ might consider a pivot in its policies which could limit the Yen's losses.

On the US side, Retail Sales from July will be released on Tuesday and are expected to have expanded at a monthly pace of 0.4% from its previous figure of 0.2%. In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the last July’s meeting will be closely watched by investors on Wednesday to continue placing their bets for the next Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions. As for now, according to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are confident that the Fed will skip in September while the odds of a 25 basis point (bps) hike in November rose near 40%.

USD/JPY Levels to watch

The daily chart analysis indicates a bullish outlook for the USD/JPY in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above its midline in positive territory, with a positive slope, aligning with the positive signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), displaying green bars, and reinforcing the strong bullish sentiment. Moreover, the pair is above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), implying that the bulls retain control on a broader scale.

In addition, a distinct bullish dominance over sellers is evident on the four-hour chart, with indicators displaying a strong buying momentum.

Support levels: 145.00, 144.70, 144.00.

Resistance levels: 145.70, 146.00, 146.50.

USD/JPY Daily chart

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price	145.55
Today Daily Change	0.59
Today Daily Change %	0.41
Today daily open	144.96

Trends
Daily SMA20	141.75
Daily SMA50	141.7
Daily SMA100	138.51
Daily SMA200	136.48

Levels
Previous Daily High	145
Previous Daily Low	144.42
Previous Weekly High	145
Previous Weekly Low	141.51
Previous Monthly High	144.91
Previous Monthly Low	137.24
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	144.78
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	144.64
Daily Pivot Point S1	144.59
Daily Pivot Point S2	144.21
Daily Pivot Point S3	144.01
Daily Pivot Point R1	145.17
Daily Pivot Point R2	145.38
Daily Pivot Point R3	145.75

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

GBP/USD flirts with weekly highs in the Fed's aftermath

GBP/USD reversed early losses following the Federal Reserve decision to keep rates on hold and neared the 1.3360 level before shedding some ground. Focus shifts to Governor Kevin Warsh's speech, while the Bank of England will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday.

EUR/USD extends rally pass 1.1450 on Fed's Warsh

EUR/USD trades at fresh weekly highs above 1.1450, following the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision to keep interest rates on hold. The statement showed policymakers remain confident in economic progress while blaming inflation on energy prices. The divided vote among officials put in doubt a September hike, leading to sharp US Dollar losses.

Gold hovers around $4,100 as Fed decision hits the USD

Gold surged following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Policymakers noted that inflation remains elevated and that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty, spurring doubts about a rate hike in September. XAU/USD peaked above $4,100, now battling to retain the level.

No soft target: Warsh vows to return inflation to 2%

The Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the decision carried a distinctly hawkish edge as three officials voted for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced that message, insisting there was no tolerance for a softer inflation target and warning that the Fed would not hesitate to act.

How the CLARITY Act unlocks Wall Street’s tokenization pipeline

The United States (US) Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act), awaiting a full Senate floor vote, promises to unlock Wall Street’s potential to tokenize financial assets, including equities, US Treasuries, private credit, real estate and commodities at a scale that could supercharge the real-world asset (RWA) market from the current $17 billion level to $5.5 trillion by 2030, according to

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.