Economists at Credit Suisse analyze USD/INR outlook ahead of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meeting.
RBI will intervene to enforce an 81.00-83.00 USD/INR trading range
We still think RBI intervention is the main driver for the USD/INR exchange rate. The RBI has intervened at 81.00 and 83.00 since October 2022. The decision to hike or hold on 8 Jun is unlikely to shift these RBI intervention levels. We, therefore, reiterate our USD/INR forecast range of 81.00- 83.00.
We prefer to fade USD/INR rallies near 82.70, and think the pair will trade back towards the mid-point of the trading range.
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