USD/INR Price News: Indian rupee snaps four-day downtrend on RBI inaction, US NFP eyed

USD/INR reverses the early Asian run-up following’s RBI’s status-quo.
RBI Governor Das cites enhanced and targeted policy support for exports as the need of an hour, cuts GDP forecast.
US dollar remains bid on safe-haven demand amid tapering woes.
US NFP, Fed’s Powell and President Biden’s speech will be the key event of the day.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) refrain from strong policy measures dragged USD/INR from intraday top to 72.98, down 0.06% on a day, amid Friday’s initial Indian trading session. In doing so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair prints the first daily loss in five.

The RBI kept the benchmark repurchase rate (repo) unchanged at 4.0%, as well as holding the reverse repo rate intact around 3.35%, widely matching market expectations, by the end of a three-day monetary policy meeting on Friday. It’s worth noting that the Indian central bank announced INR 160 billion special liquidity facility for the Small Industrial Development Bank of India (SIDBI) to help Medium, Small and Micro Enterprises (MSME).

Following the rate decision, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, “The inflation print for April at 4.3% has brought with it some relief and policy elbow room.” Further, the RBI Boss Das downgrades FY2021-22 GDP forecast to 9.5% while expecting CPI to be around 5.1% during the stated period.

Despite the absence of the RBI’s strong fight against the pandemic, USD/INR sellers seem to have cheered the confidence of Governor Das while taking qualitative measures to tame the pandemic-related economic losses.

On the other hand, market sentiment remains sluggish during the aftermath of the US data suggesting reflation woes, also fueling the tapering expectations. The same put a safe-haven bid under the US dollar.

However, cautious sentiment ahead of today’s key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) keeps traders divided. Also important will be the US President Joe Biden’s speech and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as USD/INR traders will seek clues to justify tapering fears, which in turn could recall the pair buyers if matching market consensus.

Read: US May Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Analyzing major pairs' reaction to NFP surprises

Technical analysis

USD/INR pullback from 21-day SMA, around 73.06, favors further pullback towards 72.80 immediate support. Though, any further downside will have a bumpy road to the yearly bottom surrounding 72.15-20. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of 73.06 won’t offer a fresh pass to the pair buyers unless crossing 100-day SMA near 73.30.

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	73.0275
Today Daily Change	-0.0191
Today Daily Change %	-0.03%
Today daily open	73.0466

Trends
Daily SMA20	73.062
Daily SMA50	73.7455
Daily SMA100	73.2913
Daily SMA200	73.4792

Levels
Previous Daily High	73.1475
Previous Daily Low	72.8464
Previous Weekly High	73.0975
Previous Weekly Low	72.3386
Previous Monthly High	74.311
Previous Monthly Low	72.3386
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	73.0325
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	72.9614
Daily Pivot Point S1	72.8795
Daily Pivot Point S2	72.7124
Daily Pivot Point S3	72.5784
Daily Pivot Point R1	73.1806
Daily Pivot Point R2	73.3146
Daily Pivot Point R3	73.4817

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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