USD/INR edges higher amid Trump’s tariff fallout

The Indian Rupee (INR) declines on Tuesday, erasing all its gains of 2025. Fears over global trade tensions escalated after China implemented retaliatory tariffs on US goods. The heightened uncertainty has triggered risk-off sentiment, leading to outflows from emerging markets, including India. This, in turn, exerts some selling pressure on the Indian currency. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could tolerate a sharper depreciation of the INR if China lets the Chinese Yuan weaken to cushion the impact of US tariffs, multiple sources aware of the central bank's thinking said.

On the other hand, a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) due to the concerns over the potential recession in the United States might help limit the local currency’s losses. The RBI interest rate decision will be in the spotlight later on Friday. The Indian central bank is expected to cut key interest rates by up to 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday, with lower inflation supporting an accommodative monetary policy stance. The attention will shift to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for March, which is due later on Thursday.

Indian Rupee remains fragile after Trump's latest tariffs threat

• Pranjul Bhandari, HSBC’s Chief India Economist, expects consecutive interest rate cuts from the RBI at the central bank’s April, June and August meetings.
• Despite the global economic uncertainty and tariff policy, Indian government officials remain optimistic about the country’s growth trajectory. They project a growth rate of 6.3% to 6.8% for the fiscal year 2025-26.
• "Bond yields slipped further after the RBI surprised by announcing another OMO for April, signaling a strong preference for surplus liquidity to aid transmission. We look for a 25bp cut in the repo rate to 6% and a change in stance to accommodative at the April meeting, tapping into the wide real rate cushion," said Radhika Rao, executive director and senior economist at DBS Bank.
• The markets have priced in a nearly 65% chance of a Fed cut in May, and futures now point to about 100 basis points  (bps) worth of rate reductions by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. 
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said late Monday that significant tariff retaliation could boost inflation, adding that a global trade war eruption may lead to a consumer behavior shift.
• Fed Governor Adriana Kugler noted that some of the recent rise in goods and market-services inflation may be "anticipatory" of the effect of the Trump administration's tariffs. Kugler further stated that the Fed's focus should be on keeping inflation in check, per Reuters. 

USD/INR bulls seek to extend upside correction above the 100-day EMA 

The Indian Rupee remains weak on the day. According to the daily chart, the USD/INR pair is set to resume its uptrend, with the price crossing above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The pair could resume its upside journey if the price decisively closes above this level. 

The first upside barrier for USD/INR emerges at 85.88, the 100-day EMA. Any follow-through buying above the mentioned level could see a rally to 86.48, the low of February 21, en route to 87.00, the round mark.

The initial support level for the pair is seen at 85.20, the low of April 3. Sustained bearish pressure below this level could keep pulling USD/INR down to the next target at 85.00 psychological level, followed by 84.84, the low of December 19.