USD/INR extends recovery to 68.50 ahead of US-India trade talks, Indian data


  • The US Dollar (USD) recovers after the latest declines on the back of the Fed’s easy money concerns.
  • The US and India are to hold trade talks after “tit-for-tat” tariffs were held back due to the Indian election.
  • India’s Industrial Output and the US PPI are in the spotlight for now.

The USD/INR pair carries previous day recovery to 68.55 heading into the European markets open on Friday.

The US Dollar has been under pressure recently on the Federal Reserve policymakers’ loud-mouthed support to the Fed rate cut.

However, the pair seems to gain traction ahead of the key trade meeting between the US and India.

India levied fresh tariffs on the US farm products like Almonds to retaliate against the losses witnessed due to the US sanctions on steel. However, the tariffs were on hold amid general election in India that showed previously ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gaining huge victory.

Trade representatives of the US and India will meet in India to arrive at the solution. The Assistant US Trade Representative (AUSTR) for South and Central Asia, Christopher Wilson, will lead the US side negotiation with the Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal on Friday.

Reuters recently reported that India can seek the US market access for its farm products in exchange for calling back the duties on American almonds. It was also reported in the news piece that quoted Indian government source that the Asian nation may not adhere to an immediate increase in foreign investment as far as its retail sector is concerned.

At the data front, Indian Industrial Output for May and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June will be in the spotlight. While Indian data is expected to soften to 3.2% versus 3.4% prior on MoM basis, the US PPI can decline to 0.0% and 1.6% from 0.1% and 1.8% respectively on MoM and YoY basis. It should also be noted that the PPI ex Food and Energy might slip to 2.2% from 2.3% on a YoY format while likely holding 0.2% MoM print intact.

Technical Analysis

Not only 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of 68.91 but early-June lows surrounding 69.00/05 can also limit the pair’s near-term upside. However, a downside break of 68.25 can recall bears targeting 68.00 and June 2018 low near 67.69.

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