USD/INR rebounds strongly despite weak US job demand batters US Dollar
- Indian Rupee surrenders initial gains against the US Dollar.
- Investors await the key US NFP benchmark revision report for the year ending March 2025.
- FIIs continue to pare stakes in Indian stock markets.
The Indian Rupee (INR) gives back early losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair recovers to near 88.30 as the Indian Rupee remains uncertain due to the continuous outflow of overseas funds from the Indian stock market in the wake of trade tensions between India and the United States (US).
The data showed on September 8 that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold Indian equities worth Rs. 2,169.35 crores. In six trading days of September, FIIs have remained sellers in the cash market and have pared stake worth Rs. 7,836.25 crores cumulatively.
Meanwhile, the announcement of the rationalization of Goods and Services Tax (GST) structure by the Indian government to boost domestic consumption appears to be failing to offset the impact of US-India trade tensions.
A report from ING has signaled a warning that the direct impact of US President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs might look moderate on paper, as Indian exports to the US in FY2025 represented less than 2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but its second-round impact would be significant on employment and consumption.
The table below shows the percentage change of Indian Rupee (INR) against listed major currencies today. Indian Rupee was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | -0.15% | -0.28% | -0.01% | -0.27% | 0.19% | -0.14% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | -0.16% | -0.28% | -0.01% | -0.20% | 0.22% | -0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.15% | 0.16% | -0.16% | 0.14% | -0.04% | 0.35% | 0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.28% | 0.28% | 0.16% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.46% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.14% | -0.26% | -0.23% | 0.22% | -0.13% | |
| AUD | 0.27% | 0.20% | 0.04% | -0.06% | 0.23% | 0.40% | 0.06% | |
| INR | -0.19% | -0.22% | -0.35% | -0.46% | -0.22% | -0.40% | -0.34% | |
| CHF | 0.14% | 0.14% | -0.01% | -0.13% | 0.13% | -0.06% | 0.34% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: Investors await key US NFP benchmark revision report
- The Indian Rupee retreats against the US Dollar to near 88.30 on Tuesday, even as the US Dollar extends its downside, following dismal United States (US) official job data for August.
- At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh over six-week low around 97.30.
- The US Dollar is facing selling pressure as soft US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data has almost locked in an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the policy meeting next week. The NFP report showed on Friday that the economy added 22K fresh workers, the worst reading seen since January 2021.
- According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see an 11.6% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4.00%, while the rest point a standard 25-bps interest rate reduction.
- In Tuesday’s session, investors will pay close attention to the NFP benchmark revision report for employment data through March 2025. The report will show a preliminary revision for payrolls added in the 12-month period through March 2025, before the final benchmark revision is reported within the employment report of February 2026.
- The impact of the employment revision report will be significant on market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. In 2024, the Fed delivered a 50-bps interest rate cut in September after the payrolls revision report showed that the economy created 818K fewer jobs than had been anticipated earlier.
- This week, investors will focus on the US and India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, which will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Inflationary pressures in both nations are expected to have grown at a faster pace.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR stays above 20-day EMA
The USD/INR pair attracts bids near 88.00 on Tuesday. The near-term trend of the pair remains bullish as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades near 87.82.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls to near 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI holds above that level.
Looking down, the 20-day will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the round figure of 89.00 would be the key hurdle for the pair.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
