USD/INR clinches three-week tops above 71.00 on RBI rate cut calls, USD strength

  • Increased odds of RBI rate cut next month drags Rupee lower.
  • US-China trade uncertainty driven broad USD demand also weighs on the INR.
  • Focus remains on trade-related developments and US data.

The USD/INR pair extends its rebound from five-week lows into a fourth day on Thursday, hitting fresh three-week highs of 71.12 some minutes ago.

The strength in the spot is mainly on account of two major catalysts; primary being the doubts over US-China trade deal-driven safe-haven buying in the US dollar across its main competitors. A fresh report on Wednesday rekindled fears about a delay in the US-China trade deal after the timing of the deal signing was pushed back to some time in December.

Market pricing 68% chance of an RBI rate cut on Dec 5

Meanwhile, the upside bias in the cross can be also attributed to the bearish bias seen around the Indian Rupee (INR) amid increased odds of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) next month.

Further, the Indian currency also feels the heat of the slowing Indian economy and therefore the bias leans to the downside in the coming months, as highlighted by the latest Reuters poll. The poll reveals that over 40 strategists expect the Rupee to weaken about 1.3% to 71.90 against the greenback in 12 months.

 Looking ahead, the sentiment around the cross will solely remain at the mercy of the USD dynamics amid looming US-China trade risks and ahead of the US macro news due later in the NA session today.

USD/INR Technical levels to consider


Today last price 71.047
Today Daily Change -0.0270
Today Daily Change % -0.04
Today daily open 71.074
Daily SMA20 70.9727
Daily SMA50 71.1856
Daily SMA100 70.4918
Daily SMA200 70.1938
Previous Daily High 71.1475
Previous Daily Low 70.69
Previous Weekly High 71.2825
Previous Weekly Low 70.5329
Previous Monthly High 71.79
Previous Monthly Low 70.6425
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 70.9727
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 70.8648
Daily Pivot Point S1 70.7935
Daily Pivot Point S2 70.513
Daily Pivot Point S3 70.336
Daily Pivot Point R1 71.251
Daily Pivot Point R2 71.428
Daily Pivot Point R3 71.7085



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