USD Index treads water near 101.30 ahead of key data

The index trades within a narrow range around 101.30.
Further weakness is expected to meet support at the 101.00 region.
Flash Q1 GDP figures, weekly Claims take centre stage later.

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

The greenback, when tracked by the USD Index (DXY), alternates gains with losses around the 101.30 on Thursday.

USD Index looks at data, risk appetite

The weekly decline in the index seems to have met some initial contention around the 101.00 neighbourhood amidst persistent bias towards the risk complex and a tepid bounce in US yields across the curve.

In the meantime, the Dollar attempts to stabilize in the lower end of the weekly range against the backdrop of a strong improvement in the sentiment around the risk-associated assets and a broad consolidation in place since the beginning of April.

Data wise in the US, the release of advanced Q1 GDP Growth Rate will be in the centre of the debate along with usual Initial Claims and Pending Home Sales.

What to look for around USD

The dollar remains under pressure and trades close to the weekly support in the 101.00 zone.

Looking at the broader picture, the index continues to navigate in a consolidative phase against steady expectations of another rate increase in May by the Fed.

In favour of a pivot in the Fed’s hiking cycle following the May event appears the persevering disinflation and nascent weakness in some key fundamentals.

Key events in the US this week: Flash Q1 GDP Growth Rate, Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales (Thursday) – PCE/Core PCE, Employment Cost, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Final Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Persistent debate over a soft/hard landing of the US economy. Terminal Interest rate near the peak vs. speculation of rate cuts in 2024. Fed’s pivot. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China trade conflict.

USD Index relevant levels

Now, the index is losing 0.13% at 101.30 and the breach of 100.78 (2023 low April 14) would open the door to 100.00 (psychological level) and finally 99.81 (weekly low April 21 2022). On the other hand, the next hurdle emerges at 102.80 (weekly high April 10) followed by 103.05 (monthly high April 3) and then 103.17 (55-day SMA).

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

AUD/USD remains depressed near 0.6950 after RBA minutes

AUD/USD attracts follow-through selling during Tuesday’s Asian session, looking to extend the overnight rejection slide from 0.7000, or a two-week top, following the release of RBA meeting Minutes. The US Dollar retains a bullish undertone near its highest level since April 2025 as energy-driven inflation risks keep December Fed rate hike bets firmly on the table. Adding to this, geopolitical risks further underpin the safe-haven USD.

USD/JPY extends retreat below 158.50 as intervention risks loom

USD/JPY is dropping below 158.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a two-day winning streak and pulling back from an over two-week top touched the previous day, despite Japan's soft PPI inflation print. Bulls turn cautious amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen, which, in turn, weighs on the pair.

Gold bulls seem hesitant below $4,200 as hawkish Fed offset USD weakness

Gold retains a mildly positive bias though it remains capped below the $4,200 mark and the top boundary of a two-week-old trading range. The US Dollar retreats from its highest level since April 2025 amid some profit-taking, offering support to the precious metal. However, the US Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and escalating Middle East conflicts could limit deeper losses for the safe-haven buck, keeping a lid on the commodity and warranting some caution for aggressive bulls.

Solana reclaims 50-day EMA amid tokenization expansion

Solana (SOL) trades above $107 on Tuesday, reclaiming the 50-day EMA after closing below it the previous day. Meanwhile, Solana’s tokenization expansion and the upcoming listing of Hong Kong’s second spot Solana Exchange Traded Fund highlight growing institutional interest.

Dollar corrects as markets watch bank earnings

The US Dollar remains broadly strong but is now correcting, with a possible retest of the breakout zone around 102 on the Dollar Index. Equity markets are showing a mixed picture: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are weaker, while blue-chip indices such as the Dow Jones and DAX are moving higher.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?