• USD/IDR keeps pullback from monthly top around one-week low.
  • Indonesia Retail Sales jumped 10.8% in November versus 6.5% prior, Consumer Confidence eased in December.
  • USD weakness adds to the pair’s bearish bias ahead of Fed’s Powell, US inflation.

USD/IDR remains on the back foot around $14,290, printing the fourth consecutive daily loss during early Tuesday.

The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) stays depressed amid upbeat Retail Sales data at home and the market’s cautious optimism, which weighs on the US dollar.

That said, the Indonesian Retail Sales rallied to 10.8% YoY in November, from 6.5% previous readouts. It’s worth noting that the Bank Indonesia (BI) Consumer Survey index remained upbeat at 118.3 in December, down from November’s 118.5.

Elsewhere, market sentiment remains dubious as traders await the US inflation data, as well as testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, per the prepared remarks for today’s Testimony, seem to favor the risk-on mood. The Fed Boss said, “The economy is growing at its fastest rate in years, and the labor market is robust.” However, his pledge to stop higher inflation from getting entrenched keeps the rate hike concerns on the table and weighs on the sentiment.

However, Reuters’ tally suggests a new record top of the US daily infections above 1.13 million. Alternatively, comments from Merck’s official saying, “Expect Molnupiravir mechanism to work against omicron, any covid variant,” could be cited as positive for the risk appetite.

Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 1.5 basis points (bps) to 1.757% after rallying to January 2020 levels during the previous day, before closing in negative on D1. Further, the 2-year bond coupons remain steady around March 2020 levels, near 0.90% at the latest. Additionally, S&P 500 Futures print 0.07% intraday gains while stocks in the Asia-Pacific region trade mixed by the press time.

Looking forward, testimony by the Fed Chair Powell and Wednesday’s inflation becomes the key for markets while covid updates may offer intermediate clues.

Technical analysis

Although failures to cross November’s peak of $14,455 favors USD/IDR bears, the 100-DMA level near $14,270 restricts the immediate downside of the pair.

Additional important levels

Today last price 14288.5
Today Daily Change -3.0000
Today Daily Change % -0.02%
Today daily open 14291.5
Daily SMA20 14292.86
Daily SMA50 14307.451
Daily SMA100 14275.949
Daily SMA200 14350.407
Previous Daily High 14360
Previous Daily Low 14269
Previous Weekly High 14450.8
Previous Weekly Low 14233
Previous Monthly High 14538
Previous Monthly Low 14140
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 14303.762
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 14325.238
Daily Pivot Point S1 14253.6667
Daily Pivot Point S2 14215.8333
Daily Pivot Point S3 14162.6667
Daily Pivot Point R1 14344.6667
Daily Pivot Point R2 14397.8333
Daily Pivot Point R3 14435.6667



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