USD firms on holiday positioning and Venezuela Oil blockade – Scotiabank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The US Dollar (USD) gained amid holiday positioning and a Trump-imposed Venezuelan oil blockade, though slowing labor market trends suggest the Fed could ease more aggressively in 2026. Dollar gains may stall near the upper 98s without fresh catalysts, as speculation over the next Fed chair adds uncertainty to markets, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

Trump’s Fed Chair choice adds volatility to USD and yields

"The USD is trading higher overall on the session as markets adjust positioning and start thinking about the holidays now the week’s main event is over. At the margin, some haven demand may be driving USD gains in response to President Trump imposing an oil blockade on Venezuela. Oil and gold price are stronger. Global stocks are moderately firmer while Treasurys are soft."

"A slowing labour market suggests the Fed may loosen monetary policy a little sooner and perhaps a little more aggressively than markets have priced in for 2026. While the USD is firming today, we remain bearish on the broader outlook. DXY gains may peter out in the upper 98/low 99 zone without additional impetus. Meanwhile, Citadel’s Griffin commented yesterday that it was 'important to keep distance between the Fed and the White House'."

"Reports have emerged recently suggesting 'pushback' from high level people close to the president regarding Hassett’s potential nomination as Fed chair. The reports have triggered a slide in online betting on Hassett and a jump in bets favouring Warsh’s nomination. Warsh is considered a strong candidate, given his term as a Fed governor (2006-11) and financial market experience. However, he comes with a reputation of something of a policy hawk and that is apparently not the sort of thinking President Trump wants at the top of the Fed. If it really is boiling down to these two candidates, US yields and the USD may rise somewhat if Warsh is picked. A Hassett nomination may be something of a liability for the USD and Treasurys."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD eyes 100-SMA hurdle near 0.7035 as hawkish RBA counters firmer USD

AUD/USD regains positive traction on Tuesday and climbs to 0.7030 during the Asian session, reversing the previous day's corrective slide from a one-month high as hawkish RBA rate expectations continue to support the Aussie. Spot prices, however, remain below the 100-day SMA pivotal resistance amid a firmer US Dollar as traders brace for Australia’s September CPI report on Wednesday ahead of the Fed rate decision.

USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 157.50 as traders await Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day, recovering further from a one-month low ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the BoJ policy update on Friday. Meanwhile, expectations that the BoJ may hold off on aggressive rate hikes weigh on the Japanese Yen, and the US Dollar advances to a nearly two-week high, supporting the currency pair.

Gold holds above $4,000 as traders brace for Fed interest rate decision

Gold edges higher during American trading hours on Tuesday after trading in negative territory earlier in the day. A slight decline in Oil prices offers some relief, although a firmer USD limits the upside as traders await the Fed’s monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP on edge as sell-side pressure intensifies

Cryptocurrency prices are broadly correcting on Tuesday, led by Bitcoin (BTC) edging lower below the pivotal $80,000 level. Ethereum (ETH) mirrors Bitcoin’s neutral-to-bearish outlook, while Ripple (XRP) hovers around $1.30.

Experts agree: Fed policy outlook and geopolitical tensions keep US Dollar bid

The US Dollar Index rallies 0.6% in three days and hits fresh two-week highs above 102.00. Investors return to the US Dollar as markets brace for a hawkish hold by the Fed on Wednesday. Waning hopes of any immediate US-Iran peace deal have provided additional support to the safe-haven USD.

Anthropic pledged $270 billion to Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Here's who actually gets paid

Anthropic owes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at least $269.4 billion for computing power, even if it uses less. All three sell its models and handle its billing, and Amazon and Google own stakes and lend it money, so they get paid regardless of how the IPO goes. The Dario Amodei-led Anthropic filed its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday, seeking a listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.