USD consolidates, focus on US inflation data – Scotiabank

FX trading is relatively subdued. There are no major data reports from the US or Canada this morning but the week ahead delivers updates on US CPI, PPI, Import Prices and Retail Sales, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

USD trade mixed to slightly firmer ahead of this week’s US inflation data

"Focus on price reports may be providing the USD with a little lift, absent any other news, but the overall dollar tone remains one of consolidation as the DXY holds close to the levels that prevailed through the latter part of last week. While headline and core US inflation is expected to pick up in July, pressure on the Fed to lower rates remains apparent."

"Swaps reflect 21/22 bps of easing priced into the curve for the September FOMC. Beyond this week’s data, the Jackson Hole event late next week is likely to become a bigger focus for markets. This year’s event focuses on labour markets in transition and, over the years, the gathering has developed a reputation as a stage for unveiling Fed policy pivots."

"Recall that Fed Chair Powell indicated at last year’s Jackson Hole that the time had come to lower rates and the Fed eased 50bps at the following meeting in September. Intraday support for the DXY sits at 98.05, resistance is 98.40 which rather suggests a quiet, range-bound session may develop today. Broader, technical drivers remain bearish for the index."