USD/CLP: Chilean peso may be oversold at current levels – Wells Fargo

The USD/CLP jumped from 850 to record highs above 1050. According to analysts at Wells Fargo, the move could be identified as overshooting and the currency could be oversold. They see a potential appreciation ahead for the Chilean peso of around 6% in the short term. 

Key Quotes: 

“Our analysis reveals the Chilean peso may be oversold at current levels. In fairness, the Chilean peso has rightfully come under pressure. Copper prices have dropped significantly, and given Chile's reliance on copper, the drop in prices has spilled over onto the currency. In addition, Central Bank of Chile policymakers have underwhelmed markets on multiple occasions when it comes to monetary policy.”

“As depreciation pressure mounted, policymakers have resisted any form of FX intervention, and as of now, seem unwilling to use FX reserves to support the currency. This combination has the Chilean peso in free-fall and hitting new lows against the greenback on a daily basis. However, we believe the currency is oversold and now misaligned with country fundamentals.”

“From a technical perspective, we believe market participants will notice this imbalance and the peso can recover. In addition, we believe the recent selloff will force Central Bank of Chile policymakers to raise policy rates more aggressively and extend the tightening cycle, as well as intervene in FX markets and defend the currency.”

“As policymakers step up policy tightening and intervention efforts, the currency can rebound back toward the upper bound of its potential depreciation range. In that sense, we believe the Chilean peso can rally 6% in the short-term.”