USD/CHF struggles for direction, flat-lined below 200-DMA ahead of NFP

USD/CHF was seen consolidating its recent decline to the lowest level since late February.
The risk-on mood undermined the safe-haven CHF and extended some support to the pair.
The prevalent USD selling bias capped the upside ahead of the closely-watched US jobs data.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/CHF pair seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the first half of the European session and was last seen hovering around the 0.9070-75 region, nearly unchanged for the day.

A combination of diverging forces failed to provide any meaningful impetus and led to a subdued/range-bound price action near the lowest level since February 26 touched earlier this Friday. The underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets undermine the safe-haven Swiss franc and was seen as a key factor that extended some support to the USD/CHF pair.

Despite the supporting factor, the USD/CHF pair, so far, has struggled to register any meaningful recovery amid the prevalent US dollar selling bias. Expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates low for a longer period continued acting as a headwind for the USD. Even a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields did little to impress the USD bulls.

Investors also seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets, rather preferred to wait on the sidelines ahead of Friday's release of the closely-watched US monthly jobs data. The popularly know NFP report is scheduled to be released later during the early North American session and is expected to show an addition of nearly one million jobs in April.

The unemployment rate is also expected to dip to 5.8% from 6.0% in March, though might not be enough to shift the Fed rate expectations. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the remains to the downside, which supports prospects for an extension of the USD/CHF pair's recent slide from the 0.9475 region, or multi-month tops set in April.

Even from a technical perspective, acceptance below the very important 200-day SMA and the overnight break below a one-week-old trading range support adds credence to the negative outlook. Hence, a subsequent fall towards challenging the key 0.9000 psychological mark, en-route 0.8980-75 support zone, now looks a distinct possibility.

Technical levels to watch

USD/CHF

Overview
Today last price	0.9076
Today Daily Change	0.0002
Today Daily Change %	0.02
Today daily open	0.9074

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.9158
Daily SMA50	0.9244
Daily SMA100	0.9076
Daily SMA200	0.9085

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.9145
Previous Daily Low	0.907
Previous Weekly High	0.9182
Previous Weekly Low	0.908
Previous Monthly High	0.9473
Previous Monthly Low	0.908
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.9099
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.9117
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.9048
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.9022
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.8973
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.9122
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.9171
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.9197

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

GBP/USD surges to multi-day peaks past 1.3250

GBP/USD leaves behind Friday’s small pullback and advances past 1.3250 level, or five-day highs, on Monday. Cable’s upside follows extra losses in the Greenback, while traders continue to assess the geopolitical front and upcoming key events.

EUR/USD pops to daily highs near 1.1430

EUR/USD starts the week on a positive note, climbing to as high as the 1.1430 zone, or daily tops, on Monday. The pair’s recovery comes in response to the broad-based US Dollar weakness, while investors continue to monitor developments from the Middle East ahead of the beginning of the ECB's annual forum.

Gold remains supported by $4,000

Gold remains under marked selling pressure, holding on just above the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce at the beginning of the week. The precious metal reverses two daily advances in a row as renewed effervescence in the Middle East revive inflation concerns and bolster Fed rate hike expectations.

Bitcoin four-year cycle: BTC risks 75% drawdown with four months of bear market still ahead

Bitcoin price continues to trend downward below the $60,000 support zone after losing over 50% of its value since the $126,199 high in October. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, measured from cycle tops to bottoms, suggests that four months of a bear market are still ahead.

Just like Fed, is BoJ’s independence under threat?

When talking about central bank independence, most of the focus has been on Donald Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. But a similar story, a quieter one for now, seems to be happening on the other side of the Pacific: Japan’s government may be testing the Bank of Japan’s independence.

Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of Sintra this week. The ECB Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks. The new boss at the Fed, who has clearly said that the Fed should stop explaining everything, will need to talk – and traders should listen.