USD/CHF struggles for direction, flat-lined below 200-DMA ahead of NFP

USD/CHF was seen consolidating its recent decline to the lowest level since late February.
The risk-on mood undermined the safe-haven CHF and extended some support to the pair.
The prevalent USD selling bias capped the upside ahead of the closely-watched US jobs data.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/CHF pair seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the first half of the European session and was last seen hovering around the 0.9070-75 region, nearly unchanged for the day.

A combination of diverging forces failed to provide any meaningful impetus and led to a subdued/range-bound price action near the lowest level since February 26 touched earlier this Friday. The underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets undermine the safe-haven Swiss franc and was seen as a key factor that extended some support to the USD/CHF pair.

Despite the supporting factor, the USD/CHF pair, so far, has struggled to register any meaningful recovery amid the prevalent US dollar selling bias. Expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates low for a longer period continued acting as a headwind for the USD. Even a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields did little to impress the USD bulls.

Investors also seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets, rather preferred to wait on the sidelines ahead of Friday's release of the closely-watched US monthly jobs data. The popularly know NFP report is scheduled to be released later during the early North American session and is expected to show an addition of nearly one million jobs in April.

The unemployment rate is also expected to dip to 5.8% from 6.0% in March, though might not be enough to shift the Fed rate expectations. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the remains to the downside, which supports prospects for an extension of the USD/CHF pair's recent slide from the 0.9475 region, or multi-month tops set in April.

Even from a technical perspective, acceptance below the very important 200-day SMA and the overnight break below a one-week-old trading range support adds credence to the negative outlook. Hence, a subsequent fall towards challenging the key 0.9000 psychological mark, en-route 0.8980-75 support zone, now looks a distinct possibility.

Technical levels to watch

USD/CHF

Overview
Today last price	0.9076
Today Daily Change	0.0002
Today Daily Change %	0.02
Today daily open	0.9074

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.9158
Daily SMA50	0.9244
Daily SMA100	0.9076
Daily SMA200	0.9085

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.9145
Previous Daily Low	0.907
Previous Weekly High	0.9182
Previous Weekly Low	0.908
Previous Monthly High	0.9473
Previous Monthly Low	0.908
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.9099
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.9117
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.9048
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.9022
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.8973
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.9122
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.9171
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.9197

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.